GREEN BAY (-3.0) 28 Minnesota 24
Brett Favre's first visit back to Lambeau Field may not be what he hopes it is, as the Vikings are not likely to win this game. Green Bay is better on both sides of the ball and the Vikings would probably need a big special teams play to pull off the upset win. Green Bay has out-gained their opponents 6.2 yards per play to 4.6 yppl this season and they rate at 0.6 yppl better than average on offense and 0.5 yppl better than average on defense even after compensating for their easy schedule.
Minnesota, meanwhile, has out-gained their opponents by only 5.6 yppl to 5.5 yppl and they are just an average team overall from the line of scrimmage after compensating for their easier than normal schedule.
I actually do rate Minnesota's offense better now than it's been for the season since Brett Favre was limited to short throws the first two weeks of the season before opening up the aerial attack in week 3, but Green Bay is still far better than the Vikings on both sides of the ball and Aaron Rodgers, averaging an incredible 9.2 yards per pass attempt, should pick apart a bad Minnesota secondary that is without All-Pro CB Antoine Winfield again this week.
The Packers out-gained the Vikings 6.8 yppl to 5.6 yppl last month in Minnesota even though Rodgers was sacked 8 times and my math model projects a 6.7 yppl to 5.5 yppl advantage for the Pack this time. Green Bay's loss in Minnesota was misleading and should motivate the Packers today. My math model favors Green Bay by 4 1/2 points and I'll lean with Green Bay at -3
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