Warrior Update: Oct 27, 2009: Drinking the Kool Aid - Revisited

Drinking the Kool Aid - Revisited

As the NBA regular season begins tonight, basketball pundits are making it clear our beloved Warriors are not bound for post-season glory.  Or even regular season glory.  The 10 ESPN panel experts have the Ws finishing 12^th, 11^th, 10^th, 12^th, 10^th, 11^th, 10^th, 13^th, 12^th and 15^th  respectively.  Few, if any, others have the Warriors finishing in the coveted 8^th (playoff) spot or higher. 

Far from the maddening crowds, dare we ask: can they all be wrong?

Well, for sure we know the Elite Eight (Lakers, Spurs, Celtics, Cavs, Magic, Jazz, Nuggets, Blazers) need not worry.  The lovable, dysfunctional Oakland squad is not quite ready for prime time with this gang.  The next perch is also out of Warrior range:  the Mavs, Hornets, Pistons, Hawks, Bulls and Heat are all better.

So, come June's televised NBA games, it is probably safe to say the Warriors will be on the couch watching, not on the screen being watched.  Ditto May.  An April playoff series would be this season’s surprise / shocker.  Conventional wisdom says NBA playoff success is predicated on defense and rebounding, both MIA in Oakland.

But before we step up and admit to drinking the Kool-Aid once again and say this team could surprise the experts, let’s step back and talk about what we already know:

-        ESPN ranks the Golden State Warriors franchise 109 out of 122 U.S. professional sports teams.  That sounds about right.   (In a related story, a recent Chris Cohan email to Al Davis was spotted on the net; Chris was thanking Davis for keeping his 116^th ranked Raiders in the Bay Area…).

-        The single biggest obstacle standing between the Warriors and victories is rebounding.  With 6’11” Randolph and 7’0” Wright starting the season injured, an improved board differential is a rapidly fading hope.

-        Defense.  Really, I mean, did you expect change?  Together, the Ws starting backcourt (for game one anyway) weigh less than Baron Davis’s sweaty beard  (The upside fun fact resulting from the no-D backcourt: frequent guard penetration will translate into another season as a leading shot blocking team).

-        Ex-Capn Jax – Distraction? Bad Influence? Hassle?  Yes, of course.  But the real worry should be his league leading stat: TOs. And in technicals, he was second only to Sheed last year.  That will hurt, of course.  If he is around…

-        Nellie and the Young Guns – We all know Nellie has a history of arrested development, doghouse fun and a shortened bench, known for everything but developing young talent.  Good thing the average age on the team is up from last year, now a strong 24-ish…

-        Stephen Curry?  Forget that in preseason, he was shooting 30% from the field, 20-ish from long distance and had more TOs than assists going into the final warm up game.  One good exhibition showing, and he is anointed starting guard, face of the team, rookie of the year and CEO.  Which is the real Stephen Curry?  I fear it is a mix of the two…

But, but, but…Yes, wait, its kicking in.  Here it is,  the top ten reasons to be optimistic about the ‘09/’10 Warriors:

1)     Easy early schedule: After a home opener against the Yao-less, Tracy-less Rockets, the next eight games are against lottery teams.  If the Warriors start 5-4 or 6-3 (imagine a 7-2 start!), winning could be contagious and boost confidence.  Picture the youngsters not knowing they shouldn't believe in themselves; they might start wearing “We Believe” shirts.

2)     Team athleticism –  This year reminds us of the ’07 team – likely both the quickest and the fastest team in the league and will see a lot of open looks from downtown.  Now if we could get Jax to shoot less 3s and Morrow to shoot more…

3)     Low expectations – which is when Nellie does his best work.  In Milwaukee, in Dallas and in his first go round with the Ws, Nellie worked under the radar and his teams responded.  Does he have one more in him?

4)     Anthony Randolph – Yes, he really will be everything that everyone believes he can be.  He does have a back problem at the moment, but he added 20 lbs of muscle and an inch of height (remember, “you can’t teach height”) and is dedicated to being a serious player (he really, really wants that max contract in two years time…).  If Randolph breaks out this year, he can dominate in a way no Warrior has since C-Web 14 years ago.

5)     A true 1 guard – When your point sees the court, passes well, and has a high hoops IQ, that translates into more ball movement, better offensive opportunities and easier shots.  Curry, warts and all, including questions about his NBA level shooting ability (can you say JJ Reddick?), is looking like a real point guard (it appears this summer's CP3 tutelage has paid off…).  For us, fewer embarrassing, fumbled fast breaks would be a great start…

6)     Ronny Turiaf -  You gotta love the guy.  Always hustling, helping out, battling, cheering.  Just a great guy to have on your team.

7)     A healthy Monta -  An unstoppable offensive player when uninjured.  Now if only someone could teach him to move his feet on defense…

8)     Maguette arrived this year, according to Jax, as the Incredible Hulk.  Already a physical marvel, he ate better, worked out more often, and will still get to the line 10+ times a game.

9)     Five point guards on the roster.  Only a kooky Nellie team could do this.  Maybe it works out…and, finally...

10) The Oracle Arena – If the Ws come out of the gate winning, the fans will back them fervently.  Lets hope they get the chance.

Prediction: 36 wins, + or - 8 wins.    Finish: 7^th to 10^th place.

As always, go Ws!