Warrior Update: Oct 27, 2009: Drinking the Kool Aid - Revisited

(Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images)

Drinking the Kool Aid - Revisited

As the NBA regular season begins tonight, basketball pundits are making it clear our beloved Warriors are not bound for post-season glory.  Or even regular season glory.  The 10 ESPN panel experts have the Ws finishing 12^th, 11^th, 10^th, 12^th, 10^th, 11^th, 10^th, 13^th, 12^th and 15^th  respectively.  Few, if any, others have the Warriors finishing in the coveted 8^th (playoff) spot or higher. 

Far from the maddening crowds, dare we ask: can they all be wrong?

Well, for sure we know the Elite Eight (Lakers, Spurs, Celtics, Cavs, Magic, Jazz, Nuggets, Blazers) need not worry.  The lovable, dysfunctional Oakland squad is not quite ready for prime time with this gang.  The next perch is also out of Warrior range:  the Mavs, Hornets, Pistons, Hawks, Bulls and Heat are all better.

So, come June's televised NBA games, it is probably safe to say the Warriors will be on the couch watching, not on the screen being watched.  Ditto May.  An April playoff series would be this season’s surprise / shocker.  Conventional wisdom says NBA playoff success is predicated on defense and rebounding, both MIA in Oakland.

But before we step up and admit to drinking the Kool-Aid once again and say this team could surprise the experts, let’s step back and talk about what we already know:

-        ESPN ranks the Golden State Warriors franchise 109 out of 122 U.S. professional sports teams.  That sounds about right.   (In a related story, a recent Chris Cohan email to Al Davis was spotted on the net; Chris was thanking Davis for keeping his 116^th ranked Raiders in the Bay Area…).

-        The single biggest obstacle standing between the Warriors and victories is rebounding.  With 6’11” Randolph and 7’0” Wright starting the season injured, an improved board differential is a rapidly fading hope.

-        Defense.  Really, I mean, did you expect change?  Together, the Ws starting backcourt (for game one anyway) weigh less than Baron Davis’s sweaty beard  (The upside fun fact resulting from the no-D backcourt: frequent guard penetration will translate into another season as a leading shot blocking team).

-        Ex-Capn Jax – Distraction? Bad Influence? Hassle?  Yes, of course.  But the real worry should be his league leading stat: TOs. And in technicals, he was second only to Sheed last year.  That will hurt, of course.  If he is around…

-        Nellie and the Young Guns – We all know Nellie has a history of arrested development, doghouse fun and a shortened bench, known for everything but developing young talent.  Good thing the average age on the team is up from last year, now a strong 24-ish…

-        Stephen Curry?  Forget that in preseason, he was shooting 30% from the field, 20-ish from long distance and had more TOs than assists going into the final warm up game.  One good exhibition showing, and he is anointed starting guard, face of the team, rookie of the year and CEO.  Which is the real Stephen Curry?  I fear it is a mix of the two…

But, but, but…Yes, wait, its kicking in.  Here it is,  the top ten reasons to be optimistic about the ‘09/’10 Warriors:

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