Tom Thibodeau's Faith in Derrick Rose Is Killing Wolves' Chances vs. Rockets

Tom Thibodeau's faith in Derrick Rose, a microcosm of the coach's inflexibility, is relatable, oddly endearing and almost certain to result in a quick postseason exit for the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Rose played 24 minutes in Minnesota's Game 1 loss, registering a personal plus-minus of minus-six in a three-point game. He spent considerable time guarding James Harden, shot the ball more than every teammate but Andrew Wiggins and led the Wolves in usage.

This is a guy whom the New York Knicks let walk, who signed with the Cleveland Cavaliers on a minimum deal, who was traded and then waived—all within the last nine months. Starter Jeff Teague got into foul trouble, but leaning on Rose that hard wasn't a last resort. It felt more like a familiar crutch.

Even Thibodeau, who saw the best of Rose with the Chicago Bulls, cannot possibly look at the version that exists now and see an MVP. It's clear, though, that he sees something 29 other head coaches don't. Maybe sentiment's to blame, and maybe that's forgivable. But trust in what used to work, with Rose being a clear symbol, is untenable in this series.

Rose's presence on the floor compromises Minnesota in two key ways. First, his pick-and-roll defense, particularly when matched up on Harden, makes life too easy on the Rockets. Rose died on pick after pick up top, forcing Karl-Anthony Towns into the unenviable position of corralling Harden in a downhill charge with Clint Capela lurking for lobs.

"

 James Harden throws it up for the Capela JAM!

 #PhantomCam#Rockets pic.twitter.com/y1E1dvpg9r

— NBA UK (@NBAUK) April 16, 2018"

Not only that, but Rose's career-long deficiencies as a jump-shooter make him easy to abandon when help defenders double-team Towns in the post. On the rare occasions Towns received the ball with a favorable matchup underneath, the Rockets were quick to shuttle a second body toward him.

Neither Teague nor Tyus Jones are cure-alls, but both are better in those two key areas.

Tried (and Tired) and True

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It's on Thibodeau to change, which is a big ask of a coach historically defined by inelasticity. Call it stubbornness if you want; the evidence supports the harsher characterization.

Thibodeau runs his starters into the ground, even when they're coming off injury, despite the leaguewide consensus that rest is vital to preserving health. Jimmy Butler, Towns and Wiggins all ranked among the top 13 in minutes per game.

He refuses to build an attack around three-point shooting, despite the conspicuous offensive approach taking place on virtually every other team. Minnesota took fewer treys than anyone in 2017-18, despite the presence of Towns, a devastatingly effective floor-spacer at the 5 who shot 42.1 percent from deep.

Thibodeau's pick-and-roll defense swept the league a decade or so ago, but the intervening years have, naturally, given way to workarounds and advancements. Houston, for example, switches liberally—something Thibs never embraced and continues to eschew. To put a finer point on it, the Rockets rose from 18th to sixth on defense by utilizing like-sized personnel and effectively doing the opposite of what Thibs preached in his days with the Celtics and Bulls.

The defensive personnel in Minnesota leaves something to be desired, but you'd think two years of bottom-10 defensive ratings—accumulated while outfits in Houston, Boston, Golden State and elsewhere improved by moving away from Thibs' principles—would force some fresh analysis.

In light of all that, it's difficult to believe Thibodeau has overhauls in mind ahead of Game 2.

A Few Things Right

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To be fair, Thibs isn't entirely unwilling to tweak.

Dropping Towns in the pick-and-roll is a departure from the way Minnesota played against the Rockets during the regular season, as Liam Flynn pointed out on Cleaning the Glass. The tactic put Towns in positions where he doesn't excel, but it had to happen after Houston put up three of its 10 most effective offensive performances of the season in a 4-0 sweep of the Wolves.

If it took a 4-0 series sweep to spur some rethinking, will a three-point loss in Game 1 have the same effect? It'd better.

There are obvious benefits to Thibodeau's approach of putting extreme trust in a limited number of people and ideas. You see it manifest in the level of buy-in he receives from guys he pushes to the breaking point.

It's an old cliche that when you ask any NBA player how much he'd like to play every night, he'll say "48 minutes...unless there's overtime."

Thibodeau effectively gives his best players what they want. He sends them onto the floor and leaves them there to succeed or fail. Reinforcements aren't coming. Maybe that's why guys like Rose, Butler and Taj Gibson have always bought in, have always stayed loyal—even through injury, exhaustion, notoriously grueling and detail-oriented practices and a nonstop gravel-throated serenade from the sideline.

Then again, maybe that kind of faith is also why Butler felt empowered to fling up such a godawful game-tying attempt against Houston on Sunday.

Moving Forward

It's true Towns must be better. Nine shots isn't enough, and he knows it—especially with the Rockets switching smaller defenders onto him so frequently. And especially when he can do this to them:

Thibodeau must hammer home the urgency of getting Towns the ball in the post. He must chastise his guards (Rose included) for attacking switches up top rather than moving the ball to find KAT underneath. He's already nudged Towns in the press, hopefully coaxing a better effort out of his star scorer:

"Run the floor, kick the ball out, re-post, keep moving around, search it out, get to the offensive board," he told reporters when asked how Towns could improve. "You got to sprint around. You learn, when teams are double-teaming you, you have to make the right play, so you have to get to positions where it's difficult for them to double-team. Transition's a big part of that and you've got to run the floor."

Thibodeau must also scale back Rose's usage and trust in Jones and even little-used Nemanja Bjelica to space the floor. Reining in Butler's wilder hero-ball tendencies would be a good idea. So would consciousness of pushing the veteran Gibson to the point of exhaustion by the third quarter.

Even in the unlikely event Thibodeau employs these off-brand changes, it may not matter. The Rockets are the better team in every measurable way. They're going to break Minnesota.

But for the future of the Wolves, the one well beyond Game 2 of this series, it'd be nice to see Thibs bend.

Stats courtesy of Basketball Reference, Cleaning the Glass or NBA.com unless otherwise specified.

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