It's Inevitable: Aaron Rodgers Will Be the NFL's 1st $200 Million Man
One day soon, maybe sooner than you think, Aaron Rodgers will stand at the podium in the press room deep in the bowels of Lambeau Field. There will be a massive smile on his face.
Rodgers will have reason to be happy. He'll have just signed a deal to make him the highest-paid player in the history of football, and not by a slim margin.
He will be asked about the financial details of the contract. He'll politely decline to discuss them. He'll smile some more.
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"I'm just happy to be a Packer for life," he'll say.
But before his press conference, details of the contract will have leaked. The key point that will be discussed by media, fans and even Rodgers' teammates: He will be the first NFL player to earn a $75 million signing bonus and over $125 million in guaranteed money. The total contract will be for $200 million.
"I'll be able to buy a lot of cheeseheads," he'll joke.
(Actually, he would never say that, because he's not that corny.)
This is all hypothetical, of course, and possibly insane. But it will happen. Rodgers will be the first $75 million bonus, $125 million guaranteed, $200 million salary player in the NFL.
Are those types of numbers really possible? They may be elevated, but several agents and team officials say they are. They say it's not crazy.
And here's the thing: Rodgers will be worth it, whatever huge contract he gets. He is, to me, the most dynamic player in NFL history. He combines remarkable throwing accuracy with athleticism and leadership skills. Rodgers is the most well-rounded player the sport has ever seen.
He also wins. Matthew Stafford—who just signed a five-year contract extension with a $50 million signing bonus, $92 million guaranteed and $135 million in total salary—has no MVPs or playoff wins and an overall record of 51-58.
Stafford's not an outlier in this, either. As NFL Network's Rich Eisen tweeted:
Putting too much stock in quarterback wins is silly, but in some cases it does make sense. Rodgers, who's 90-45 overall and 9-7 in the playoffs, is one of those cases. He elevates every player on that team, including the defense, and he puts that entire franchise on his back.
Yes, Rodgers is worth that kind of money. Absolutely.
There is one important question this raises, though. If you pay Rodgers, Stafford, Matt Ryan, Andrew Luck or Tom Brady huge money, can you still put a good team around them?
The answer is complicated.
"The real answer...is that you can't," says Joe Banner, the former president of the Eagles, chief executive officer of the Browns and front-office consultant with the Falcons.
"You are betting that the quarterback is so important, and so good, that you can surround him with less talent and win. The teams that are screwed are the teams paying $21-24 [million] and getting a good quarterback versus a difference-maker. They will have a very hard time winning."
How teams navigate this salary monster has been an issue since there was a salary cap. But the problem teams face now is bigger than ever before. The quarterbacks are more integral to offenses, and the money in football is the biggest it's ever been.
It's a financial puzzle that will determine the future of the league. Teams that make the right choices, like paying Brady, will win Super Bowls. Teams that make the wrong ones, like the Texans giving Brock Osweiler $37 million guaranteed, will struggle.
So far, only a handful of big-money quarterbacks have been worth the massive paydays. Brady and Russell Wilson. Rodgers.
"If you have an A-plus quarterback making a lot, and you surround him with a B-talent team, you can win," Banner says. "If you have a B-talent quarterback and surround him with B-talent team, you are screwed."
This is why giving Rodgers supermoney will work. He isn't just an A-plus quarterback. He's an eternal one.
It's also why giving Stafford huge money is such a risk. He's a B-level pass-thrower with solid, but not great, talent around him.
The Lions, like other teams, don't have a choice. The ability to play the position with even basic competence is so increasingly rare (see: the Jets) that teams are forced to take chances they wouldn't with any other position.
Rodgers signed a five-year extension in 2013 for $110 million. It included $62.5 million in guaranteed money. That was just four years ago, and the contract is wildly outdated.
Rodgers' annual salary of $22 million puts him behind, among others, Stafford ($27 million), Derek Carr ($25 million), Luck ($24.6 million), Drew Brees ($24.3 million) and Kirk Cousins ($23.9 million), via Spotrac.
No one should feel sorry for Rodgers, but Cousins making more than him is like Yeoman Rand making more than Captain Kirk.
For his part, Rodgers is saying he isn't concerned about his contract. When asked how Stafford's deal affected him, Rodgers told Alex Marvez of Sporting News: "How it affects me? I think we're a couple of years away (from renegotiation)."
He added: "I know how this team operates. They take care of the guys who are their core guys. I think I'm one of those guys. … You negotiate based on what you've done, what other people have done. I don't handle that. My agent handles that. I don't worry about that stuff. If it's meant to happen here, it's going to happen here. I think it is and I want it to. But again, that stuff takes care of itself. You play well enough, you get another contract."
Rodgers sounds pretty laid back in those quotes, but trust me—if you've known Rodgers for even a millisecond, you know he's competitive in every way. All of the greats are. It's unlikely Rodgers is cool with guys not in his universe making significantly more cash than he is.
When Brees heard about the deal, he texted his agent, Tom Condon—who represents both Brees and Stafford—with a simple, "Wow."
It's unlikely the Packers will wait until the last minute to take care of Rodgers. It will happen sooner than later. Rodgers is too vital not to be given a new contract. He'll get it.
Then there will be that historic press conference. Free of corny jokes.
Mike Freeman covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @mikefreemanNFL.
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