ARIZONA (-5.5) 27 Houston 23
Arizona has started the season at 1-2 but they've also faced a pretty good schedule of teams that are a combined 9-3 straight up and about 6 points tougher than average (SF, Jack, and Indy). Arizona has been out-gained in those games 5.4 yards per play to 5.6 yppl, but that's not bad considering those teams would out-gain an average team 5.7 yppl to 4.9 yppl.
Arizona's weakness, however, is their pass defense and Houston's potent aerial attack (7.3 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp) should thrive. Arizona can also put up big passing numbers and Houston is even worse defending the pass, allowing 6.3 yppl to quarterbacks that would combine to average just 5.3 yppp against an average team.
My math model picks this game 27-23 Arizona and I have no reason to deviate from that projection.
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