BUFFALO (-6.0) 22 Cleveland 19
The Bills have been struggling offensively the last two weeks (4.1 yppl against the Saints and Dolphins) after moving the ball well the first two weeks against the Patriots and Bucs, but I expect the Bills to use their good ground game to exploit a Cleveland defense that's allowed over 5.0 ypr in all 4 games and has given up an average of 5.5 ypr for the season.
A good ground attack should take some of the pressure off of Trent Edwards, who hasn't been given enough time to find his talented group of receivers (he's been sacked 16 times in 4 games). Cleveland's offense looked better last week with Derek Anderson taking over at quarterback for Brady Quinn, but the Browns were still below average offensively in that game (4.8 yppl against a Cincy defense that would allow 5.2 yppl at home to an average attack). Still, that's much better than the Browns' season rating of 0.9 yppl worse than average.
The trade of WR Braylon Edwards to the Jets probably won't have much of a negative affect given that Anderson appears to connect better with rookie Mohamed Massaquoi, who caught 8 passes in Anderson's start last week (only 2 in the other 3 games) while Edwards had 0 catches on 4 passes intended for him. Buffalo was without 3 of their 4 starting defensive backs last week (two are questionable to return this week and CB Leodis McKelvin is out for the season).
Oddly it was the Bills' run defense that let them down, as Miami tallied 251 rushing yards and averaged only 3.1 yards per pass play. Buffalo has been average defensively for the season (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team) and they have an advantage over Cleveland's attack.
Buffalo actually has a pretty solid edge overall from the line of scrimmage but the Browns have excellent special teams and the Bills' special teams have been uncharacteristically poor so far this season.
There are pretty strong situations favoring both teams in this game, but my math model favors Buffalo by only 3 points and I'll lean with the Browns based on that.
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