Arizona St. (-21.0) 31 WASHINGTON ST. 10
Washington State freshman quarterback Jeff Tuel will get another start this week after getting knocked out early against Oregon last week. Tuel may get knocked out again given how bad his depleted line has been playing.
The Cougars are without 4 of their top 6 offensive linemen due to injury and have allowed 12 sacks the last two weeks despite playing a lot of their games against USC and Oregon backups. Speaking of backups, Tuel posted decent numbers in his first action against USC two weeks ago (116 yards on 26 pass plays), but he had 125 yards on 19 pass plays against USC's backups after totaling -9 yards on 7 pass plays against the Trojans' starters.
Last week before getting knocked out the game Tuel had -6 passing yards on 4 pass play, so he's now got -15 pass yards on 11 pass plays against starting defensive units. Tuel will perform better against an Arizona State defense that is good (4.5 yards per play allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average team), but not great.
The problem with the Sun Devils is an offense that has averaged only 4.8 yppl despite facing teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team.
Washington State is 1.7 yppl worse than average on defense, so ASU should move the ball pretty well in this game (my math model projects 5.9 yppl). However, my math model only favors ASU by 18 points. I can certainly see a 34-3 game too, so I'll stay away from the side and lean with the Under.
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