#12 IOWA (-8.0) 30 Michigan 20
I'm not a huge fan of Iowa's right now, as the Hawkeyes are only average offensively (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl and 1.4 interceptions per game), but they're better than an overrated Michigan team that's been out-played from the line of scrimmage in 3 of their 5 games. Michigan's offense sure does look good, averaging 394 yards per game at 5.9 yppl, but they've also faced a schedule of teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average attack, so the Wolverines are the same offensively as Iowa is while also throwing too many interceptions (1.2 per game).
It's defense that separates these two teams, with Iowa having a good one (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average team) and Michigan being just average on the stop side of the ball (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team.
Both teams have been good in special teams, which a slight edge going to Michigan, so this one is all about Iowa's defense and home field advantage. My math favors the Hawkeyes by 10 points.
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