Despite Win, Michigan Shows It's Far from Lock to Reach Playoff

For three quarters, the Michigan Wolverines had considerable control of Saturday's tilt against the Michigan State Spartans.

But football is a 60-minute game.

Although Jim Harbaugh's team still recorded an important 32-23 victory, the ordinarily rock-solid bunch showed a few mildly concerning cracks during the final frame. Michigan remains a College Football Playoff favorite, but it's not a lock.

Overall, the Wolverines put together a respectable outing. They built a 30-10 advantage early in the fourth quarter, averaged 6.5 yards per play and kept Michigan State off the scoreboard on three of its six red-zone possessions.

The problem, however, was a string of defensive mistakes compounded by offensive and coaching errors in the fourth quarter. For the Maize and Blue to reach the playoff, that can't happen again.

Michigan rarely misses tackles. Suddenly, that was an issue. The secondary rarely loses track of receivers. R.J. Shelton found open space and reeled in a 34-yard completion. The Wolverines entered Week 9 as the country's 12th-least penalized team. They were flagged twice on the final drive.

"[The defense] bent a little more than usual today," quarterback Wilton Speight said, according to Angelique S. Chengelis of the Detroit News. "They'll admit that."

LJ Scott carried the ball 22 times for 139 yards—the highest total Michigan has allowed to an opposing running back this season. Michigan State gathered 217 of its 401 yards in the fourth quarter.

The performance prompted this postgame quote from cornerback Jourdan Lewis, per Nick Baumgardner of MLive:

And the offense didn't provide much help.

Kenny Allen hit a 45-yard field goal on the third snap of the closing frame. During the next three possessions, Michigan mustered a single first down.

The true test of an offensive line is running the ball effectively when everyone in the building knows you're running the ball. While the unit has noticeably improved this season, it faltered on those three drives. The Wolverines gained just 18 yards on nine carries.

Michigan leaned on Speight throughout the first three quarters, and he only made one mistake. The sophomore followed up the best game of his career with another superb performance, averaging 9.8 yards per attempt and leading six scoring drives.

Yet on the most important snap of the game—a 3rd-and-2 just inside Spartans territory—the coaching staff didn't rely on Speight, who had just completed a 3rd-and-3. Rather, Michigan removed him from the field entirely and inserted Shane Morris.

Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

Harbaugh and his assistants know more football than nearly everyone reading (and writing) this. For the majority of the game, the staff was excellent. Nevertheless, using anyone other than Speight—or if not him, Jabrill Peppers—at that juncture was baffling.

From the Wolverines' perspective, they're fortunate the outcome was never really in doubt. The problems created a closer-than-expected finish with several tense moments.

Michigan deserves credit for building a lead where mistakes didn't cost it a victory against an overmatched foe. That experience is valuable for a team that has rolled through most opponents for almost two months.

"Good for our guys to be tested that way," Harbaugh said after the game, according to Land of 10's Rachel Lenzi. "And good for the guys to come through."

Plus, Saturday marked the Wolverines' first competitive road trip of the season. They had only traveled to Rutgers—which ended in a 78-0 laugher—other than six home games. There's still no doubt Michigan is a top-two Big Ten team, and we'll find out if it's No. 1 when the program heads to Ohio State for the regular-season finale.

However, there's also a road trip to Iowa sandwiched between matchups with Maryland and Indiana before then.

As Peppers said, per Baumgardner: "We knew we'd get their best game. We get everyone's best game." 

If an offensively challenged, 2-6 Michigan State squad can make it interesting, each of those three teams could do the same.

And the Wolverines surely wouldn't survive a performance like this on the road against Ohio State.

Michigan has earned its status as a playoff favorite. But Saturday's win offered a reminder that the Wolverines, while often dominant in 2016, are not immune to a potential breakdown.

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All recruiting information via Scout. Stats from NCAA.com, cfbstats.com or B/R research. Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Follow Bleacher Report CFB Writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.