San Diego Chargers vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The San Diego Chargers don't garner much respect around the NFL betting community, and for fair reason considering they tumbled to a 4-12 record last year.

But playing the Rodney Dangerfield role can lead to friendlier point spreads, especially on the road, and the Chargers are taking advantage, going 7-0 against the spread on their last seven road trips. San Diego hits the road again this week, visiting the struggling Indianapolis Colts on Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: The Colts opened as three-point favorites; the total was 50.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 23.9-22.4 Colts (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Chargers can cover the spread

The Bolts are 1-1 straight up and 2-0 ATS this season after blowing out Jacksonville last week 38-14. San Diego took a 7-0 lead five minutes into the game, led 21-0 at the half and 35-0 in the fourth quarter before allowing the Jaguars to hit the board. They also cashed in easily as three-point favorites.

The Chargers outrushed Jacksonville 150-69, as running back Melvin Gordon produced his first 100-yard rushing effort as a pro. They also dominated time of possession by a 35-25 margin.

Two weeks ago, San Diego lost at Kansas City 33-27 in overtime, but the Chargers blew that game; they led 24-3 late into the third quarter, and 27-10 in the fourth, before a poor coaching decision sparked a Chiefs rally. San Diego outrushed Kansas City that day 155-83 and hung on for the cover as a seven-point dog.

If the running game can continue to take pressure off quarterback Philip Rivers, the Chargers could be tough to stop.

Why the Colts can cover the spread

The Colts are 0-2 on the season, giving them just an 8.9 percent chance to make the playoffs, according to website PredictionMachine.com, but they've had chances. Indianapolis opened with that 39-35 loss at home to the Detroit Lions, then fell last week at Denver to the Broncos 34-20.

But the Colts rallied against the Lions after being down 21-3 to go up 35-34 with less than a minute to go. Unfortunately, they allowed Matthew Stafford to drive Detroit 50 yards in four plays for the game-deciding field goal. Indianapolis then hung around the Broncos until the last couple of minutes, down 26-20 with the ball, before Denver linebacker Von Miller did the sack/strip thing to Andrew Luck, resulting in a Broncos defensive score that iced the game.

That play also cost the Colts a push against the spread as six-point dogs.

After struggling terribly through an injury-shortened 2015 season Luck has completed 60 percent of this throws this year, with five TD passes against just one pick. Unfortunately, that pick went for a pick-six last week.

Smart pick

The Chargers should be 2-0, while Indianapolis deserves to be 0-2. Most other things being about equal in this matchup, San Diego's new-found ability to run the ball, combined with the Colts' troubles stopping the run, should play a big part in the outcome of this game. That's why the Chargers are the smart choice.

Betting trends

The Chargers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against the Colts.

The Chargers are 11-3 SU in their last 14 games on the road against the Colts.

The Chargers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as road underdogs.

All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.