MINNESOTA (-2.5) 26 Wisconsin 23
Wisconsin quarterback Scott Tolzien is have a very good season, completing 67% of his passes for 8.6 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback.
However, the Badgers are struggling on the ground, averaging only 4.5 yards per rushing play if you take out the 126 yards on 8 runs by backup quarterback Curt Phillips (against teams that would allow 5.2 yprp to an average team).
The Badgers are still a good offensive team overall, but Minnesota has a solid defense that's yielded just 5.0 yards per play and is better than average against both the run and the pass.
Minnesota has a below average offense (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl), but the Badgers are just average defensively and they can certainly score enough points to win this game.
My math model actually only favors Minnesota by 1 point, but Wisconsin applies to a negative 34-77-1 ATS road letdown situation.
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