NASCAR at Michigan 2016: Preview, Prediction from the Firekeepers Casino 400

Brendan O'MearaJun 8, 2016

Now that Kurt Busch has cemented his place in the Chase with his win at Pocono Raceway, where does that leave winless drivers like Joey Logano and Dale Earnhardt Jr. as the Sprint Cup heads to Michigan for the Firekeepers Casino 400?

Speaking of Busch, he won this race a year ago during one of its many rain stoppages. The win marked his second of the 2015 season, so a repeat is in order. Or is it?

"Yeah, you have to get down and dirty," Busch said in Reid Spencer’s 2015 NASCAR.com story. "You have to really roll up your sleeves, get your elbows dirty, and put the work into it. And (crew chief) Tony Gibson makes these guys work a little extra hard.

It’s go time for many of these drivers. They’re three months into their regular season and have about three months to go and only 12 races remaining to make the Chase.

Without further ado, here’s this week’s preview and prediction.

By the Numbers: Michigan International Speedway

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Bob Brodbeck/Associated Press

Firekeepers Casino 400

Place: Michigan International Speedway

Date: Sunday, June 12

TV Coverage: 1:16 p.m. (ET), FS1

Distance: 400 miles, 200 laps

Defending Champion: Kurt Busch

Current Driver Standings

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Matt Slocum/Associated Press

1. Kevin Harvick, 490

2. Kurt Busch, 465

3. Brad Keselowski, 442

4. Carl Edwards, 437

5. Kyle Busch, 416

6. Jimmie Johnson, 415

7. Chase Elliott, 413

8. Joey Logano, 410

9. Martin Truex Jr., 403

10. Matt Kenseth, 382

11. Dale Earnhardt Jr., 381

12. Denny Hamlin, 372

13. Austin Dillon, 348

14. Jamie McMurray, 342

15. Ryan Blaney, 340

16. Ryan Newman, 338

Bold indicates 2016 race winner; italics indicate multi-race winner.

The Chase Bubble Watch

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Sarah Crabill/Getty Images

The Two Above the Line

Ryan Blaney and Ryan Newman

No change here from last week. Anything said about them, at this point, would be painfully repetitive.

By all means go here to read last week’s riff on the Ryans.

The Two Below the Line

A.J. Allmendinger and Kasey Kahne

Kasey Kahne finished sixth at Pocono and that vaulted him up two spots in the standings.

These two drivers, Kahne and Allmendinger, represent two threats to win a race from outside the top 16.

Drivers like Austin Dillon, Blaney, Newman and Jamie McMurray need to worry about Kahne and ’Dinger. Wins by them will bump those fringe pointers off the grid.

Biggest Movers

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Matt Slocum/Associated Press

Biggest Climb

Brad Keselowski, Up Three

This doesn’t matter much in the grand scheme since Brad Keselowski already has two wins to his credit, but it does prove his long-term viability as a Sprint Cup contender.

Amidst the early dominance of the Joe Gibbs Racing cars, Team Penske has been in total stealth mode. Kez’ two wins are good for second best this year. Logano still hasn’t won a points race (He won the All-Star Race), but it’s only a matter of time.

Moving up three spots to third place overall behind two Stewart-Haas Racing cars (as in no JGR cars in the top three), means the 2012 Sprint Cup champ has staying power in 2016.

Biggest Fall

Jimmie Johnson, Down Three

This also doesn’t matter much in the grand scheme…or does it?

The No. 48 car sometimes looks like the car that won six Cups. Other times it looks like Jeb Burton’s behind the wheel.

Here’s a look since Bristol, where Johnson finished 23rd.

Richmond: Third
Talladega: 22nd
Kansas: 17th
Dover: 25th
Charlotte: Third
Pocono: 35th

Maybe these poor results are a product of having won two races, so he lacks sheer urgency. But at this point in the season, it’s about setting a championship trend, and Johnson—with the exception of the Coke 600—hasn’t been sharp for quite some time.

Biggest Storylines: Should Jeff Gordon Be in the Booth?

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Keselowski recently took issue with Jeff Gordon, the four-time Sprint Cup champion, when Gordon went a little too inside baseball for Kez’ liking.

Keselowski’s jackman went a cow tippin’ at Pocono on the No. 2 car, laying his ilium up into the side panel. The dent creates less drag, so they say. Gordon commented on this and also implied that the last time this happened with the No. 2, it went on to win Vegas.

“They need to get some people in the booth who aren’t inbred to the sport and own teams and have internal knowledge, because that’s pretty crappy,” Kez said in Jeff Gluck’s USA Today story. “But it is what it is.”

Gordon, as many of you know, is part-owner of the No. 48 car. If you think conflict of interest takes place in the booth, then how can a competing driver also be an owner of a car he’s competing against/with? Why has this ever been allowed?

Listen to any of these broadcasts and you hear the Brothers Waltrip and Gordon constantly refer to NASCAR as “our sport,” which it is, given their participation in the game. But you can’t be so chummy and expect unbiased commentary. They can’t bite the hand that feeds, so to speak.

Gordon may have singled out Keselowski because, you know, Texas 2014. See above.

Gordon is great in the booth and his being an owner of the No. 48 car—and basically a life coach to Chase Elliott—doesn’t have quite the tinge of COI in the booth as it most certainly would on the track.

Biggest Storylines: Can Brad Keselowski Win at His Home Track?

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Matt Slocum/Associated Press

Speaking of Keselowski, how about earning a win at the coveted home track?

He has never won at MIS, but he has run well in the past. Three top fives and six top 10s suggest a win in the near future.

"We've had a lot of good runs at Michigan and opportunities to win races where we've just fallen a little bit short," Keselowski said in Chase Wilhelm’s FoxSports.com story. "I think we just need a little bit more speed and I need to execute at just a tiny bit higher level and we can win there."

This could be the week. Given how well he’s been driving this year, his string of five top 10s dating back to his win at Talladega puts him right in the thick of this race.

"Roger [Penske] used to own Michigan International Speedway and it's a track that he holds dear to his heart," he said. "It's my home track. It's the 50th year for Team Penske. All these things are lining up."

Biggest Storylines: When Will Dale Earnhardt Jr. Break Through?

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Matt Slocum/Associated Press

Water Cooler Dale has had a mediocre season to date. He’s no lock to make the Chase, as he sits in 11th in the driver standings.

MIS may be the track where he turns it around and earns that first win. He has two career wins to his credit at MIS and ran second and 10th in the two Michigan races in 2015.

It's hard to say he’s had a mediocre season with four runner-ups, but it’s true.

He said after Monday’s Pocono race in Rea White’s SportingNews.com story:

"
We just have such high standards after the last couple years we've had. Man, when you get just a little bit behind in this series, holy moly, it takes so much work to just regain what you lost, not really even to have an advantage, just to get back to where you were. A tenth out on that racetrack is impossible to find.
"

Drivers have a way of carrying momentum from one track to the next. If he can keep Busch from going back-to-back, Earnhardt could grab that elusive first win.

Dark-Horse Pick: Trevor Bayne

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Brynn Anderson/Associated Press

Trevor Bayne finished ninth in the spring race in 2015. That might mean little, but then again, the streakiness of Bayne coupled with the confidence of that top 10 could spell a strong effort.

Now, last year’s spring race ended because of rain, and by all accounts he was sitting where he was based on luck (he’d finish 22nd in the full race in August).

Three top 10s and six top 15s mean he can put himself near the top when the race matters most.