Villanova Wildcats vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Odds, March Madness Pick

The second-seeded Villanova Wildcats will try to become the third straight underdogs to win the national championship Monday night when they take on the top-seeded North Carolina Tar Heels.

The Wildcats are coming off the biggest Final Four victory ever, routing the Oklahoma Sooners 95-51 as 2.5-point favorites. The Tar Heels are favorites for Monday after squeezing the Syracuse Orange out of the Big Dance with an 83-66 victory.

Point spread: The Tar Heels opened as three-point favorites. The total was 156, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

March Madness pick, via Odds Shark computer: 72.7-68.5 Wildcats

Why pick Villanova to cover the spread?

Villanova is coming off a remarkable offensive and defensive performance against Oklahoma, making an incredible 71.4 percent of their shots from the field and holding Sooners star Buddy Hield to just nine points. The Wildcats are shooting 58.2 percent in the tourney overall with an average margin of victory of 24.2 points through the first five games.

While they are not big inside, their guard play is second to none and should be able to hold North Carolina’s backcourt of Joel Berry II and Marcus Paige in check. Paige is the X-factor in this matchup, and he struggled against the Orange until the second half, when he got finally some wide-open looks from beyond the three-point arc and nailed them.

Villanova’s Josh Hart scored 23 points on 10-of-12 shooting against Oklahoma and could win Most Outstanding Player honors with another effort like that.

Why pick North Carolina to cover the spread?

North Carolina has won all five of its NCAA tournament games by double digits and pulled away late in both halves against Syracuse to cover the spread as a 10-point favorite. The Tar Heels have won 10 in a row overall straight up with an 8-2 mark against the spread during that stretch since suffering their last loss on the road against the Virginia Cavaliers 79-74 as 2.5-point dogs on February 27.

The ACC regular-season and tournament champions have not had to play a team seeded higher than fifth en route to the championship game, and they blew out the Wildcats 83-69 in the 2009 Final Four before beating the Michigan State Spartans for their last national title.

Smart betting pick

The Wildcats are a perfect 5-0 ATS in the Big Dance after failing to cover six of eight, according to the Odds Shark College Basketball Database. They upset the top-seeded Kansas Jayhawks 64-59 as two-point underdogs in the South Region Final to snap a three-game skid as underdogs and are playing with more confidence than any other team, including the Heels.

While North Carolina’s Brice Johnson is enjoying a great run, Villanova has neutralized the opposition’s top player throughout the tourney and will find a way to do it again. Back the Wildcats to win their first national title since 1985.

March Madness betting trends

Villanova is 0-3 SU in its last three games against North Carolina.

North Carolina is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games.

Villanova is 4-0 SU and ATS in its last four games with one day off between games.

The over is 5-1 in the NCAA tournament championship game in the last six years.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app for iOS or Android.