UFC 200: Predicting What the PPV Portion of the Fight Card Will Look Like

UFC 100, the most purchased pay-per-view in the fight promotion's history, took place just less than seven years ago.

It was headlined by the most marketable heavyweight to date, Brock Lesnar, in a rematch with the man who ruined his promotional debut at UFC 81, Frank Mir. The co-main event featured perhaps the most likable champ in company history, Georges St-Pierre, taking on then-top contender Thiago Alves. The third fight pitted the All-American Dan Henderson opposite British spitfire Michael Bisping. Even Jon Jones was on the card, lurking on the prelims, in only his third UFC fight. 

In more than three months on July 9, UFC 200 will go down. Given the grandeur of UFC 100, it's only natural the brass will want to go even bigger for its bicentennial pay-per-view event. 

So who will headline the fight card? How will they fill out the rest of the main card?

Let's roll up our sleeves and speculate as to how things will shake out.

We'll start with which top fighters won't be available (because they are already booked in a fight on an upcoming event) and then list the options that are already set in stone or being rumored. We'll finish up by looking at the top options that are still in play.

Fighters We (Likely) Won't See at UFC 200

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Women's strawweight champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Claudia Gadelha will do battle the night before UFC 200.

Between April and UFC 200, there are quite a few fights of interest taking place across three pay-per-view events and seven television broadcasts. Listed below is every notable fight and the corresponding event it takes place on.

We'll note that fighters competing in the month of April could pull off a quick turnaround and compete at UFC 200, provided they emerge relativity unscathed. 

It's not likely, but possible, that the UFC could book the Jon Jones-Daniel Cormier winner against Anthony Johnson in a light heavyweight title fight. Or take the winner of Tony Ferguson vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov and have him face lightweight champ Rafael Dos Anjos. We're not banking on either, but it's certainly a live option. Even international hot prospects such as Robert Whittaker (Australia) and Yair Rodriguez (Mexico), both competing at UFC 197, could fill in nicely at UFC 200 if available. 

PPV fights 

• Daniel Cormier vs. Jon Jones: UFC 197, April 23
• Demetrious Johnson vs. Henry Cejudo: UFC 197, April 23 
• Anthony Pettis vs. Edson Barboza: UFC 197, April 23 
• Robert Whittaker vs. Rafael Natal: UFC 197, April 23 
• Yair Rodriguez vs. Andre Fili: UFC 197, April 23 
• Fabricio Werdum vs. Stipe Miocic: UFC 198, May 14
• Vitor Belfort vs. Ronaldo Souza: UFC 198, May 14 
• Anderson Silva vs. Uriah Hall: UFC 198, May 14
• Mauricio Rua vs. Corey Anderson: UFC 198, May 14
• Demian Maia vs. Matt Brown: UFC 198, May 14
• Luke Rockhold vs. Chris Weidman: UFC 199, June 4
• Dominick Cruz vs. Urijah Faber, UFC 199, June 4
• Dustin Poirier vs. Bobby Green, UFC 199, June 4

Televised fights 

• Ben Rothwell vs. Junior Dos Santos: UFC Fight Night 86, April 10
• Tony Ferguson vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov: UFC on Fox 19, April 16
• Rashad Evans vs. Glover Teixeira: UFC on Fox 19, April 16
• Dan Henderson vs. Lyoto Machida: UFC on Fox 19, April 16 
• Andrei Arlovski vs. Alistair Overeem: UFC Fight Night 87, May 8
• Thomas Almeida vs. Cody Garbrandt: UFC Fight Night 88, May 29
• Rory MacDonald vs. Stephen Thompson: UFC Fight Night 89, June 18
• Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs. Claudia Gadelha: The Ultimate Fighter 23 Finale, July 8  

Fights That Have Been Booked or Are Strongly Rumored

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Former heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez is set to make his return at UFC 200.

Two fights have been confirmed for UFC 200.

Several sites have reported on the bookings of Travis Browne vs. Cain Velasquez (heavyweight) and Derek Brunson vs. Gegard Mousasi (middleweight); both bouts are listed on MMAFighting.com's UFC 200 hub page. 

Also listed on the hub page, but not yet confirmed by the UFC, is the much-talked about Nate Diaz vs. Conor McGregor rematch. MMAFighting.com's Ariel Helwani reported on this Monday's edition of The MMA Hour that the contracts are out there and that the fight will be contested at 170 pounds, not 155. 

Their first fight was of course contested at 170 pounds, which meant McGregor moved up essentially two weight classes from the featherweight division's 145-pound limit, where he holds the belt, to what was essentially a welterweight fight.

Diaz, who has fought at welterweight several times in his career but has mostly made lightweight (155 pounds) his home, took the fight on 10 days' notice and came in at more or less his walking-around weight. 

So, does an immediate rematch make sense? Pundits and fans alike are split.

Many would prefer McGregor to move back down in weight and defend his belt against No. 1 contender Frankie Edgar. If not him, then a rematch with former champ Jose Aldo. Others feel the UFC should ride the lightning from their first fight; UFC President Dana White told ESPN's Max and Marcellus (h/t Bloody Elbow) the fight generated a near-record-breaking PPV buyrate. 

If the UFC does book the rematch, Diaz vs. McGregor 2 is most likely the main event. 

So, what else might hit the PPV portion of the fight card?

Additional Options for Fight Bookings

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Will Robbie Lawler vs. Carlos Condit 2 be booked for UFC 200?

1. The return of Georges St-Pierre

Rumors of GSP's eventual return have been in existence almost as long as he's been on the sidelines. Worth noting, though, was that GSP was in attendance for McGregor vs. Diaz. GSP has been loosely linked to fights with several folks, including both McGregor, per GSP's ex-manager Stephane Patry (h/t Bloody Elbow) and Diaz, per GSP's coach Firas Zahabi. He thinks both men blew a big opportunity by not calling out GSP that night. 

So will the former champ finally make his return? It would be fitting since he helped anchor the mega-event that was UFC 100. The UFC brass would of course love it, but it all comes down to if he's into it. With it looking like Diaz vs. McGregor 2 will be a reality, if GSP does sign on the dotted line, you'd have to think it would be against current welterweight champ Robbie Lawler. 

Official Prediction: We'll put the chances of GSP returning at UFC 200 at 25 percent. It's more likely that he'll wait and face the winner of Diaz vs. McGregor, possibly when the UFC makes its long-awaited debut in New York later this year. Or, perhaps even more likely, GSP will never return.

2. A woman's bantamweight fight

At first glance, you'd think the UFC would want to get two out of the three top fighters in the division on this card, whether it's Miesha Tate rematching Holly Holm or, even better, Ronda Rousey attempting to get the belt back against Tate in what would be their third fight. 

But we don't know when Rousey wants to return. And the UFC may want to save her for its first event in New York. And it stands to reason the company will want to put her in a title fight opposite Tate. She recently said she doesn't want to wait around specifically for Rousey to return.

So would the UFC book the Tate vs. Holm rematch? It could, but if Tate beats Holm again, that puts a huge dent in the marketability of a potential Rousey-Holm rematch down the line. 

Official Prediction: You won't see any of these women on UFC 200. Rousey won't be back in time, and the UFC won't want to risk Tate losing the belt to someone not named Rousey. Furthermore, the company won't book the Tate vs. Holm rematch because it doesn't want to risk Holm losing to Tate for a second time. So look for the UFC to keep Tate on the sidelines until Rousey is ready. As for Holm, she'll likely match up against someone beatable in the division, but not necessarily at UFC 200.

3. Lightweight champ Rafael Dos Anjos and/or welterweight champ Robbie Lawler

• Heavyweight champ Fabricio Werdum fights in mid-May. 
• Light heavyweight champ Jon Jones fights in late April.
• Middleweight champ Luke Rockhold fights in early June.
• Featherweight champ Conor McGregor looks to be tied up with Nate Diaz once again.
• Bantamweight champ Dominick Cruz fights in early June.
• Flyweight champ Demetrious Johnson fights in late April.
• Women's bantamweight champ Miesha Tate will likely stay on the sidelines.
• Women's strawweight champ Joanna Jedrzejczyk will be fighting the night before on the TUF 23 Finale.

So that leaves Dos Anjos and Lawler as the only available champs. Dos Anjos actually suggested a superfight between the two, but according to his manager, Ali Abdelaziz, the UFC shot that idea down (along with his request for a Diaz fight). So that means the UFC has separate plans for both.

The best options for Dos Anjos are the available Eddie Alvarez, who recently edged out former champ Anthony Pettis, or the winner of Tony Ferguson vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov. Look for the UFC to hold out and see who emerges from that fight. If the winner emerges impressively, and also healthy, he'll likely face Dos Anjos. Otherwise, look for Alvarez to get the call. 

As far as Lawler goes, GSP would obviously be the splashiest opponent. But since we're not predicting that GSP will return just yet, we'll go with a rematch with Carlos Condit. Their first fight at UFC 195 back in January was a fireworks show, and many thought Condit got the better of the champ. 

Official Prediction: Since Diaz vs. McGregor will headline (if booked) but is not actually a title fight, we'll roll the dice and say the UFC features both Dos Anjos and Lawler at UFC 200. Why the heck not? It's UFC 200! Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez and Lawler vs. Condit 2 are the highest-probability fights, so we'll pencil those in for now.

4. The debut of CM Punk 

Ah, the man also known as Phil Brooks.

The UFC announced he'd be joining the UFC back in December 2014. The plan, a good one, was for him to soak up as much MMA training as he could before stepping into the Octagon. Surely, he's ready to show the world what he's been learning in the gym for the last year-and-a-half?

Official Prediction: He's supposed to be debuting versus 1-0 UFC fighter Mickey Gall. It's a calculated risk predicting Punk will ever fight for the UFC, but we'll go out on a limb and say he does just that.

5. The return of BJ Penn 

This is a bit of a wild card....for if Mr. Punk isn't ready to rock. 

BJ Penn has been training down at Jackson Wink's MMA gym for two months now. Coach Greg Jackson thinks, per Ariel Helwani of MMAFighting.com, that Penn has something left in the tank. Per Dana White, Penn wanted to fight McGregor at UFC 196. With events in April through June mostly filled, what better place to give the legendary Penn one more shot at glory. 

6. Top fighters who currently don't have a fight booked and thus could be an option (fighters mentioned above not listed)

• No. 8 heavyweight Mark Hunt
• No. 2 light heavyweight Anthony Johnson 
• No. 3 light heavyweight Alexander Gustafsson 
• No. 5 light heavyweight Ryan Bader 
• No. 6 light heavyweight Ovince Saint Preux 
• No. 4 middleweight Michael Bisping 
• No. 9 middleweight Tim Kennedy
• No. 3 welterweight Tyron Woodley 
• No. 5 welterweight Johny Hendricks 
• No. 1 featherweight Jose Aldo
• No. 2 featherweight Frankie Edgar 
• No. 3 featherweight Chad Mendes
• No. 4 featherweight Max Holloway
• No. 5 featherweight Ricardo Lamas 
• No. 1 featherweight TJ Dillashaw 
• No. 3 bantamweight Raphael Assuncao
• No. 4 bantamweight Aljamain Sterling 
• No. 6 bantamweight Michael McDonald 
• No. 8 bantamweight Bryan Caraway
• No. 1 flyweight Joseph Benavidez 
• No. 4 flyweight Jussier Formiga 
• No. 5 flyweight Ian McCall 
• No. 3 women's bantamweight Cat Zingano
• No. 4 women's bantamweight Amanda Nunes
• No. 5 women's bantamweight Julianna Pena 
• No. 2 women's strawweight Carla Esparza 
• No. 5 women's strawweight Jessica Penne

Predicted Lineup for the PPV Portion of UFC 200

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Will CM Punk make his UFC debut at UFC 200?

 Main Card

• Nate Diaz vs. Conor McGregor (for the money-weight title*)
• Robbie Lawler vs. Carlos Condit 2 (for the welterweight title)
• Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Eddie Alvarez (for the lightweight title) 
• Cain Velasquez vs. Travis Browne
• CM Punk vs. Mickey Gall  

Diaz vs. McGregor, while not a title fight, would be a five-round affair. Add in two actual title fights below it, and that gives you a nearly unheard-of three five-round fights on the same fight card. That last time that happened was at UFC 33. 

It's far from a lock that the UFC will put both a welterweight and lightweight title fight on the main card. But we will still predict it because it feels like UFC 200 needs both, along with Diaz and McGregor to outperform what they did at UFC 100. The UFC is all about outdoing itself. 

As for Gegard Mousasi vs. Derek Brunson, look for that middleweight scrap to be on the Fox Sports 1 prelims, likely as the headliner for the televised portion of UFC 200.

*There's officially no such thing as a money-weight title, but for more on the rise of the money-weight fighter, read here.