Yale Bulldogs vs. Duke Blue Devils Betting Odds, March Madness Analysis, Pick

The Ivy League champion Yale Bulldogs (23-6) will try to pull off an even bigger upset in the second round of the NCAA tournament when they face the defending national champion Duke Blue Devils (24-10) in the West Region Saturday.

The 12th-seeded Bulldogs are consensus betting underdogs against the fourth-seeded Blue Devils after knocking out the fifth-seeded Baylor Bears 79-75 as 5.5-point dogs for their third straight cover Thursday.

Point spread: The Blue Devils opened as 6.5-point favorites; the total was 146, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

March Madness pick, via Odds Shark computer: 79.0-65.4 Bulldogs

Why pick Yale to cover the spread

Why not Yale? After beating Baylor, this team has a ton of confidence and knows it can compete with the big boys in the Big Dance. Makai Mason proved himself as a big-time player too with a career-high 31 points on 9-of-18 shooting from the field and 11-of-11 from the free-throw line.

Even though Mason made only two of eight three-point attempts, he came through in the clutch to help the Bulldogs fend off the Bears down the stretch. Yale is riding a six-game winning streak and has lost just once in its last 19 games.

Why pick Duke to cover the spread

Duke got a bit of a scare in a 93-85 win over the North Carolina-Wilmington Seahawks in the first round and failed to cover the spread as a 10-point favorite. The Blue Devils have now gone six straight games without covering, their longest streak of the season.

Last year, they played through a stretch of not covering eight times in 11 games, according to the Odds Shark College Basketball Database, and still went on to win the national title. Duke head coach Mike Krzyzewski is the best in the business and will make sure he has his team prepared to avoid the upset bug in the second round.

Smart betting pick

There is obviously a huge difference between Baylor head coach Scott Drew and Krzyzewski, who will find a way to make sure the Blue Devils do not lose this game. They are a much smarter team than the Bears and will not let Mason go nuts again.

Also, say what you want about Grayson Allen, but the Duke sophomore will make some big plays here to help his team earn a victory and cover the spread.

March Madness betting trends

Duke is 0-6 against the spread in its last six games.

Duke is 7-2 straight up in its last nine games in March.

The total has gone over in three of Yale's last four games with a closing total of 146 or less.

Yale is 4-0 against the spread in its last four games in March.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app for iOS or Android.