NCAA Bracket 2016: Picks and Updated Odds Ahead of Tuesday's First Four Schedule
Before the craziness of the NCAA tournament's first round, eight teams will try to avoid an early exit in this year's First Four.
While this opening set of games is often overlooked, at least one squad has gone on to win in the round of 64 in each season since 2011. Those planning on making a winning bracket should pay attention on Tuesday and Wednesday.
The next three weeks of college basketball will certainly be exciting, but before we get ahead of ourselves, here is a breakdown of the First Four from Dayton, Ohio.
| March 15 | No. 16 Florida Gulf Coast vs. No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson | 6:40 p.m. | truTV |
| March 15 | No. 11 Vanderbilt vs. No. 11 Wichita State | 9:10 p.m. | truTV |
| March 16 | No. 16 Holy Cross vs. No. 16 Southern | 6:40 p.m. | truTV |
| March 16 | No. 11 Michigan vs. No. 11 Tulsa | 9:10 p.m. | truTV |
Picks (Spread info via Odds Shark)
Florida Gulf Coast (-6) over Fairleigh Dickinson
Although Florida Gulf Coast was fun to watch in 2013 due to its athleticism on offense, it will be its defense that makes the difference in this game. The Eagles have steadily improved on that end of the court all year and have made it very difficult for opponents to get easy shots off during games.
The same cannot be said for Fairleigh Dickinson, which ranks as the No. 333 defense in the country (out of 351) on KenPom.com. The Knights have been unable to keep opponents out of the paint, and FGCU's Marc-Eddy Norelia will be able to take advantage with a big game.
Fairleigh Dickinson can be tough to handle with a fast pace and multiple quality shooters, but Florida Gulf Coast is too disciplined to score against. While the Eagles will have a hard time recreating its Sweet 16 run with a potential matchup against North Carolina up next, one win here is certainly attainable.
Wichita State (-3) over Vanderbilt
Both of these teams have been somewhat disappointing this season.
Vanderbilt has elite talent on the roster between Damian Jones, Wade Baldwin IV and a bunch of other players who can hit outside shots. Unfortunately, the Commodores have struggled to step up away from home this year.
Wichita State has a pair of senior leaders in the backcourt in Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet, but the Shockers haven't been great against top competition either in conference or out. Despite the problems, though, head coach Gregg Marshall is confident his team can make a run, via Jim Rome:
"This tournament is so wide open. I know that if we go play well, we will advance. If we don’t, we can lose to anyone in the field. ...
We make shots, we will make a deep run. That’s been our problem of late, scoring the basketball. We’ve really defended at a high level. Hopefully, we can do that continually through this tournament, and we’re going to have to catch a heater. We’re going to have to make some shots.
"
That defense has been key all year long and will make a big difference in the NCAA tournament, even if the shots don't fall. It might not be a pretty game to watch, but Wichita State has the talent, drive and experience necessary to advance deep in this tourney, starting Tuesday against Vanderbilt.
Holy Cross (+2) over Southern
It might take away from the regular season, but Holy Cross' run to the tournament showcased exactly what is so much fun about college basketball. The Crusaders were 10-19 heading into the postseason but found a way to win four true road games in a row en route to a Patriot League championship and a bid for the NCAA tournament.
They will now try to keep up their momentum against Southern, a squad that completed its own improbable run to win the SWAC title.
While both teams obviously have their flaws, which led their being No. 16 seeds, Holy Cross looks much better lately thanks to the play of Malachi Alexander. The junior is averaging just 12 points per game on the year, but that includes an incredible run in the postseason with an average of 20.8 in four wins. He has simply been on another level and almost unguardable with his ability to score in a number of different ways.
Adrian Rodgers has been solid for Southern, but the red-hot Crusaders will continue on into the next round.
Michigan (-4) over Tulsa
There was some debate about Michigan getting an at-large bid, but there was a full-blown assault on Tulsa after grabbing one of the final spots in the field:
The Golden Hurricane lost two games against middling Memphis in the last couple of weeks by a combined 32 points and haven't shown the ability to beat good teams all year long. They still have a chance to prove doubters wrong, but a lot of other teams will be watching at home imagining what they could have done in their place.
In reality, Tulsa does have a lot of talent with James Woodard and Shaquille Harrison leading the way. However, the squad would be much better off if three-pointers weren't invented. The team ranks 259th in the country in three-point percentage and 278th in opponent three-point percentage, according to Sports Reference.
With Michigan having the ability to spread the floor with five shooters on the floor at one time, this is a great matchup for the Big Ten squad. The Wolverines will be able to knock down shots all day, while Duncan Robinson and his 44.8 percent outside shooting could have a career day.
A deeper run might be difficult for a team that struggles defensively, but an opening win is definitely possible.
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