
NCAA Bracket 2016: Predicting Top Bubble Teams on Selection Sunday
Selection Sunday is a special time for a lot of college basketball teams and their fans. It's the confirmation that they have made it to the big dance as one of the top 68 teams in the nation.
For others, especially bubble teams, it's an anxiety-filled process in which postseason dreams hang in the balance.
Below are three teams that should be the top bubble teams to make the tournament this year, which would make the few nerve-wracking days leading up to Sunday's selection show completely worth it.
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Cincinnati Bearcats
22-10 (12-6 AAC), RPI: 47, SOS: 67
Friday was a heartbreaking day for Cincinnati, as it came out on the wrong end of a four-overtime thriller against UConn.
The Bearcats were just 0.8 seconds away from a win in the third overtime before this happened, via ESPN College Bball:
"Why we love #ChampWeek https://t.co/qPEu96rdN7
— ESPN College BBall (@ESPNCBB) March 11, 2016"
But with a 22-10 record to go along with a solid RPI and a relatively strong schedule, the Bearcats should make their way into the NCAA tournament. Heading into the final week of the regular season, the only thing they really needed to put them over the top was a quality win over a ranked team.
The Bearcats got just that with a 61-54 win over No. 24 SMU, a team that isn't eligible for the postseason this year.
Despite the loss, the Bearcats' play on Friday should have been a statement to the committee watching, as it showed they are a resilient, talented team that could make some noise in the big dance.
VCU Rams
24-9 (14-4 A10), RPI: 41, SOS: 80
That's right, I have Saint Joseph's taking down No. 2-seeded VCU and winning the Atlantic 10 after VCU beat No. 1 Dayton on Saturday night. Regardless of the result though, VCU has already done enough to punch its ticket to the tournament.
VCU doesn't boast a blockbuster win this season. One of its best came against No. 28 St. Bonaventure, but they lost by single digits to Duke, Wisconsin and Cincinnati earlier in the season.
The Rams do have some questionable losses to George Mason and UMass, but they were red hot to end the regular season, with 17 wins in their last 21 games.
Going 14-4 in one of the top mid-major conferences doesn't hurt, either. Its defense, which carried over the philosophies of current Texas head coach Shaka Smart, wreaks havoc on its opponents and averages over nine steals per game.
It'll be fun to watch VCU apply that kind of pressure to some of the top teams in the nation, and it should cause fans filling out their brackets to think twice about picking against the Rams.
St. Mary's Gaels
27-5 (15-3 WCC), RPI: 37, SOS: 164
Some might think that the West Coast Conference is a one-bid league. In terms of competition, they aren't wrong.
But when Gonzaga toppled regular-season champions St. Mary's in the conference title game, it became a two-bid league.
The Gaels' schedule doesn't jump off the page at you. Their quality wins are two regular-season triumphs over Gonzaga, and there are two losses against Pepperdine.
However, they boast a tougher schedule and better RPI than teams like Monmouth and Valparaiso, which are other mid-major regular-season champions that fell in their respective conference tournaments:
| Record | 27-5 | 26-6 | 27-7 |
| Conference | West Coast | Horizon | MAAC |
| RPI | 41 | 49 | 53 |
| SOS | 167 | 179 | 209 |
| Quality Wins | Gonzaga (x2) | Oregon St. | Notre Dame, USC |
| Bad Losses | Pepperdine (x2) | Manhattan | Ball State |
The Gaels defense is extremely solid, as it's ranked fifth in the nation and allows just 61 points per game. Regardless of the conference St. Mary's plays in, that's still Division I talent that's being shut down.
At the end of the day, though, it's all about winning, and St. Mary's did that all season. It would be difficult to keep a team out of the tournament that won 27 of 32 games in 2015-16, especially if it had a tougher schedule and better RPI than some of the other at-large teams in question.
Stats courtesy of ESPN.com.
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