SEC Championship Game 2015: Early Preview, Predictions for Alabama vs. Florida

The SEC carries with it a reputation for great defense. 

That's why it's no surprise that it will be the Florida Gators and the Alabama Crimson Tide playing in the conference's 2015 championship game.

Regardless of what metric you like to use to judge defenses, these two squads are at or near the top of the list. Regardless of what both teams have done on the offensive side of the ball, both teams have defenses that have carried them to double-digit win seasons. 

Now, they'll see which team can declare Southeastern supremacy and a possible spot in the College Football Playoff. Here are some predictions for how this game will play out in Atlanta. 

Points Will Be Hard to Come By

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

If you're a fan of offensive football, this might be a good time to take a walk, do the crossword or watch some basketball. This has all the makings of a slugfest. 

As previously mentioned, these defenses have both played at extremely high levels all season. Here's how they match up in metrics like Football Outsiders' FEI and S&P+ along with more traditional stats:

Category	Florida	Alabama
Yards/Game	281.7 (6)	265 (3)
Points/Game	14.5 (3)	14.5 (3)
Yards/Play	4.3 (6)	4.1 (1)
FEI	.76 (13)	1.1 (2)
S&P+	14.9 (6)	9.6 (1)

The proficiency of Alabama's defense is especially troubling news for the Gators. Treon Harris and Co. aren't exactly dynamic on offense. They're ranked 12th in the conference in yards per play at just 5.09 in SEC play. 

With the Tide's defense being the best among the units they've played thus far, a Gator touchdown will be a rare sight. If it even occurs at all. 

Derrick Henry Will Still Go over 150 Yards

John Reed-USA TODAY Sports

The Gators defense will be the most talented defense the Tide have seen. But if there's one offensive player to bet on in this game despite the difficult matchup, it's Derrick Henry. 

No one is playing better than Henry right now. His 200-yard performance against Auburn marked his fourth on the season and set multiple SEC records, as noted by the conference's Twitter account:

Helping Henry's case is that if there's a way to beat Florida's defense, it's to run right at it. Here's a look at how Florida has fared against teams who were committed to running right at them this season:

Opponent	Result	Att	Yards	Avg.	TD
New Mexico St.	W 61-13	22	64	2.91	1
East Carolina	W 31-24	22	-13	-0.59	0
@ Kentucky	W 14-9	41	115	2.80	0
Tennessee	W 28-27	51	254	4.98	2
Mississippi	W 38-10	33	69	2.09	0
@ Missouri	W 21-3	26	106	4.08	0
@ LSU	L 28-35	41	221	5.39	3
+ Georgia	W 27-3	22	69	3.14	0
Vanderbilt	W 9-7	48	145	3.02	1
@ South Carolina	W 24-14	23	21	0.91	0
Florida Atlantic	W 20-14	45	140	3.11	0
Florida State	L 2-27	30	144	4.80	2

It won't be easy sledding for Henry, but a big game is still in his reach. Tennessee nearly upset Florida earlier in the season with a strong rushing attack. LSU's Leonard Fournette had a nice outing against the Gators. He led the Tigers to a 35-28 win on the strength of his 31 carries, 180 yards and two rushing touchdowns.  

Given Henry's 46 carries against Auburn, Nick Saban isn't afraid to let his workhorse carry the load. Saban explained his philosophy on giving him the ball that many times in one game, per RollTide.com:

"

We'd really like for someone else to run the ball, but it got tough to take him out and he seemed to get stronger as the game goes on. It's hard to take him out at the end of the game. He's the go-to guy and he didn't want to come out. He wanted to go and said that he could, and certainly finished the game like we needed to today. My hat is off to him as a competitor, and he really inspires everybody on our team in the way he competes, plays and the toughness that he runs with. What a spirit.

"

Expect one more Heisman-worthy performance from the big fella against the Gators. 

Neither Quarterback Will Go over 150 Yards Passing

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

The Crimson Tide will need Henry to carry the offense. This won't be a game for quarterbacks to enjoy much success. 

Jacob Coker has been the prototypical Alabama quarterback to this point this season. His numbers aren't gaudy. He's thrown for 2,106 yards with 14 touchdowns. However, he takes care of the ball and makes plays when Alabama needs them. 

Against Florida, that will be a little more difficult. 

Coker is completing 65 percent of his passes this season. The only teams who hit that mark against Florida this season were Mississippi State with Dak Prescott and East Carolina way back in September. 

Harris isn't likely to find much success in the air as Coker's counterpart. The Tide's pass defense is on par with the Gators', and Harris isn't nearly as prolific as Coker to begin with. In four November games, Harris is 58-of-112 (51.7 percent) with three touchdowns and four interceptions. 

That isn't going to breed much confidence for an anemic Gator passing game going forward. 

Alabama Will Punch Its Ticket to the College Football Playoff

Gerald Herbert/Associated Press

Breaking down these two teams, this game comes down to a simple truth: Alabama is more complete than Florida at this point. 

The Tide might not be the most dynamic team on offense, but by virtue of having an offense, they are more qualified to win a football game. Jim McElwain should be praised for winning the SEC East in his first season as coach of the Gators, but there's still work to be done before they can win the conference. 

This should be a positive experience for his program to be involved in this game, but it would take some true chaos for Florida to pull off the upset. 

A win for Alabama—which came in at No. 2 in the College Football Playoff Committee's last rankings—will set them up to once again play in college football's Final Four. 

Prediction: Alabama 27, Florida 3

Statistics are courtesy of cfbstats.com.