Florida State Seminoles vs. Florida Gators Betting Odds, College Football Pick

Not too long ago, Florida beat in-state rival Florida State six times in a row, but the Seminoles have turned the worm and taken four of the last five meetings, going 3-2 against the spread. The Gators and Florida State meet for the 60th time Saturday night at the Swamp.

Point spread: The Gators opened as three-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 31.0-26.5 Seminoles

Why the Florida State Seminoles can cover the spread

FSU fell out of the running for anything of substance with two losses in three weeks a while back, but has won two games in a row and covered four spreads in a row, after dispatching of Chattanooga last week 52-13 and covering as a four-touchdown favorite. The Seminoles only led the Mocs 7-6 early in the second quarter, then scored the next 38 points to pull away.

Florida State later let UTC get within one score of the cover early in the fourth quarter, but promptly boosted the lead back to a safe margin by immediately driving for another touchdown of its own.

On the night, the Noles outgained the Mocs 428-273. Backup quarterback Sean Maguire threw for 152 yards and two scores, without an interception, running back Dalvin Cook ran for 106 yards and two touchdowns and wide receiver Kermit Whitfield caught five balls for 91 yards and two scores.

Two weeks ago, Florida State beat North Carolina State 34-17, covering seven points. Just before that the Seminoles lost at Clemson 23-13, but covered 12 points. And before that, they beat Syracuse 45-21, covering 17 points. So despite its status as a public betting favorite, FSU is still making money.

Why the Florida Gators can cover the spread

It didn't come easy, but the Gators moved to 10-1 last week with a 20-14 overtime victory over Florida Atlantic. Florida led 14-0 late into the third quarter, allowed the Owls to tie the score at 14-14 on a fumble in the end zone, took the early lead in the first overtime, then survived a fourth-down near-catch on FAU's final possession to escape the upset bid.

Two weeks ago, the Gators clinched the SEC's East Division title by beating South Carolina 24-14, covering as a seven-point favorite on the road. So Florida is 4-0 since losing that tough game at LSU, allowing a total of just 38 points over that span.

The Gators actually retain an outside chance of making the College Football Playoff. With a win over the Noles and a victory in the SEC title game—likely against Alabama—the Gators might just sneak in.

Smart pick

As the spread on this game indicates, these two teams are evenly matched. Florida State owns an edge on offense, but Florida owns an edge on defense. Ultimately, over the last five meetings in this series Florida State has outscored Florida by an average score of 28-15, perhaps an indication of the overall talent level. The smart money here sides with the Seminoles.

Betting trends

The favored team is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games in this matchup.

Florida is 1-12-1 ATS in its last 14 games at home in November.

Florida State is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games after consecutive wins.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.