Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6) will try to stay in contention for the AFC South title when they host the Tennessee Titans (2-7) in the Week 11 Thursday night game. The Jaguars trail the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans by just one game for the lead in the division, and they are 7-1-1 against the spread in the past nine meetings with the Titans.

Point spread: Jaguars opened as three-point favorites; the total was 44 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 26.1-19.5 Jaguars

Why the Titans can cover the spread

While Tennessee has struggled at home this season with an 0-5 mark, the team has earned both of its two wins on the road. The Titans upset the New Orleans Saints 34-28 in overtime just two weeks ago behind rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota, who has been up and down overall but had a season-high 371 passing yards and four touchdowns in that game.

Mariota faced a much tougher defense last week in a 27-10 home loss to the Carolina Panthers, and he should be primed to rebound against a Jacksonville team that has surrendered 268 passing yards per game to rank 24th in the NFL. Even though the Jaguars edged the Baltimore Ravens 22-20 last week, they still allowed quarterback Joe Flacco to throw for 316 yards and three touchdowns.

Why the Jaguars can cover the spread

Jacksonville already has as many wins as the entire 2014 season, but the team has bigger goals of making the playoffs. The only way that will happen is if the Jaguars can find a way to steal the division away from the two-time defending AFC South-champion Colts. That is certainly possible considering the Colts are without quarterback Andrew Luck for a while due to a lacerated kidney and they visit the Atlanta Falcons this week.

You can make an argument that Tennessee has been a worse team than Jacksonville over the past two seasons, too. The Titans have won only two of their last 19 games, and they are just 5-12 ATS in their past 17 following a loss. Mariota has been inconsistent this season as well, so Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley will try to find a way to neutralize him by putting pressure on the former Heisman Trophy winner.

Smart pick

It does not get much bigger than this for Jacksonville, the team’s lone prime-time game on the schedule with something to play for. While the Jaguars have a long way to go to win the division, they could move into a first-place tie with a victory and losses by the Colts and Texans. In a must-win situation, expect the Jaguars to come through with a win and cover.

Betting trends

The Titans are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games against the Jaguars.

The Jaguars are 2-5 SU and ATS in their last seven games at home in November.

The Titans are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games after a loss.

All point-spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates, and get the free odds-tracker app.