Cardinals vs. Cubs: Keys for Each Team to Win NLDS Game 3
After the St. Louis Cardinals dominated Game 1 behind John Lackey's terrific start, the Chicago Cubs rebounded to even the series at 1-1 in Game 2 when they capitalized on some big mistakes from Cardinals starter Jaime Garcia.
Now the series heads to Wrigley Field for the pivotal Game 3, and the Cubs will have ace Jake Arrieta on the mound, while the Cardinals will counter with All-Star Michael Wacha.
Given Arrieta's recent run of otherworldly success, it would seem to be advantage Cubs in this one, but as we've seen time and again, anything can happen in October.
So before the first pitch is thrown at 6:07 p.m. ET, let's take a quick look at three keys to victory for both teams in Game 3 of this NLDS matchup.
Cubs: Jake Arrieta Continuing His Incredible Recent Run
1 of 6
Even the casual baseball fan has taken notice of the current run of success Chicago Cubs ace Jake Arrieta is on, and a strong case can be made that he's the best pitcher in the game of baseball at this very moment.
Let's take a quick look at the numbers one more time:
- 2015 Stats: 33 GS, 22-6, 1.77 ERA, 0.865 WHIP, 236 K, 229.0 IP
- Second Half: 15 GS, 12-1, 0.75 ERA, 0.727 WHIP, 113 K, 107.1 IP
- Last 9 Starts: 9 GS, 8-0, 0.27 ERA, 0.552 WHIP, 73 K, 67.0 IP
That of course doesn't include the brilliant five-hit shutout he twirled against the Pittsburgh Pirates in the do-or-die Wild Card Game.
Including that start, he has not even allowed an earned run since Sept. 16. He enters his Game 3 start working on a 31-inning scoreless streak.
Given his recent success, the 29-year-old is understandably confident ahead of his Monday start.
"I think that I'm confident in my ability to go out there tomorrow and give us an outing that's good enough to win the game," Arrieta told reporters on Sunday, per Greg Garno of MLB.com.
"You know, I just intend to keep us in the game, regardless of the circumstances, whatever comes up. But I like my chances to go out there and win us a ballgame."
If Arrieta turns in another gem, that may be the only "key to victory" the Cubs need to take a 2-1 lead in the series.
For the record, Arrieta is 2-1 with a 2.42 ERA against the Cardinals this year, but he has not faced them since July 7, and those numbers are skewed a bit by a poor start on May 7 where he allowed nine hits and five runs (four earned) in 5.1 innings.
Cubs: Some Sort of Production from Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant
2 of 6
The one-two punch of Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant in the middle of the Chicago Cubs lineup this season gave the team two of the top run producers in the National League.
Those two star hitters have yet to show up here in the postseason, though, and at some point that will have to change if the team is going to make a deep playoff run.
While fellow rookies Jorge Soler and Kyle Schwarber have both homered this postseason, Bryant is still searching for his first postseason hit, as he's gone 0-for-11 with one walk and four strikeouts through his first three games.
The series moving to Chicago should help, as Bryant was a much better hitter at home this year with a .311/.408/.629 line and 21 of his 26 home runs coming at Wrigley Field.
Meanwhile, Rizzo is 0-for-10 with one walk and four strikeouts, and that comes on the heels of a mediocre month of September where he hit just .255 with four home runs.
"I know they’re going to hit,’" manager Joe Maddon told reporters, per ASAP Sports Transcripts. "They’re gonna hit. The thing is to keep this rolling long enough to get them back in the groove a little bit."
Both guys should have a good opportunity to break out of their current slumps against Cardinals starter Michael Wacha, but more on that in a moment.
Cubs: Continued Success Against Michael Wacha
3 of 6
There is little question Michael Wacha was one of the National League's better pitchers this season, as he went 17-7 with a 3.38 ERA, 1.213 WHIP and 153 strikeouts in 181.1 innings of work.
However, a number of guys in the Cubs lineup have enjoyed terrific individual success against Wacha in their careers, including the slumping duo of Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo.
- Kris Bryant: 3-for-10, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 4 K
- Starlin Castro: 10-for-22, 2 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 5 K
- Dexter Fowler: 2-for-5, 1 BB
- Anthony Rizzo: 10-for-22, 2 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Slugger Kyle Schwarber has yet to face Wacha, but he will almost certainly be in the lineup after sitting against left-hander Jaime Garcia in Game 2.
Jumping on the 24-year-old Wacha early and getting into the Cardinals bullpen could be exactly what the Cubs need to not only come away with a win in Game 3 but to also better position themselves for a victory in Game 4 as well.
Cardinals: A Reversal of Fortune for Michael Wacha
4 of 6
With several Cubs enjoying a good deal of individual success against Wacha, it should come as no surprise that he's struggled more times than not in his four starts against the North Siders this year.
Here's how he fared against them head-to-head here in 2015:
- June 27: W, 6.0 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K
- July 8: ND, 6.0 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 6 K
- Sept. 8: L, 4.0 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 2 K
- Sept. 19: L, 5.0 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 7 K
All told, that comes to a 6.86 ERA in 21 innings of work, and that will need to change if the Cardinals are going to take control of the series with a Game 3 victory.
The struggles go beyond just his meetings with the Cubs this year, though, as Wacha closed out the season with a 7.88 ERA in five September starts.
That raised his season ERA from 2.69 to 3.38, but the team is still confident in his stuff and his ability to put together a quality start.
"All his stuff is good right now. The main thing with Michael is, he has to control the counts, come right at them and use the whole box in the pitching zone," pitching coach Derek Lilliquist told Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.
“He gets a little amped up and gets out of rhythm and mechanics a little bit. He just has to trust his arm strength and not try to do too much and command the baseball as he can."
Cardinals: Another Strong Performance from the Bullpen
5 of 6
St. Louis Cardinals starter Michael Wacha is certainly capable of going six or seven innings, but given his late-season struggles and the Chicago Cubs success against him head-to-head, he may find himself on a relatively short leash on Monday.
That will make the Cardinals' bullpen an important piece of the puzzle once again, and it was certainly impressive in Game 2.
After fellow starter Lance Lynn came on in relief of Jaime Garcia and allowed a run in his lone inning of work, Carlos Villanueva, Seth Maness, Adam Wainwright and Jonathan Broxton combined to allow just one hit in six scoreless innings of work, walking two and striking out five.
Wainwright in particular looked great, needing just 18 pitches to get through his 1.2 innings and striking out three along the way.
The rest of the bullpen stepping up allowed the team to get some extra rest for the one-two punch of Kevin Siegrist and Trevor Rosenthal, and it figures to be all hands on deck once again in Game 3.
There's a reason the Cardinals ranked third in the majors with a 2.82 ERA from their bullpen during the regular season, and now that a healthy Wainwright has joined the mix, they are undoubtedly one of the best relief corps left standing.
Cardinals: Jason Heyward Breaking Through Against Jake Arrieta
6 of 6
We've pointed to Jason Heyward as a potential X-factor in this series before, and we'll do it again here ahead of Game 3.
The 26-year-old is a .293/.380/.489 career hitter against the Cubs in the regular season, and he hit .324 with 16 runs scored in 19 games against them here in 2015.
He's been relatively quiet so far in this series, though, going 2-for-8 with no extra-base hits and no runs scored through the first two games.
That said, he's one of the few players who has enjoyed any sort of success against Chicago Cubs starter Jake Arrieta.
The Cardinals as a team have hit .183/.251/.250 in 164 career at-bats against Arrieta, including a 0-for-16 performance from Matt Carpenter and a 1-for-15 out of Matt Holliday.
However, Heyward has gone 6-for-18 with a double, and that includes a 4-for-12 showing this season.
Heyward has been penciled into the cleanup spot in the lineup in the first two games of the series, and he'll likely be there once again for Game 3.
Chances are the Cardinals won't have many opportunities to do damage against Arrieta, but Heyward could find himself in a crucial situation and with history on his side against the Cubs ace.
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted.
.jpg?w=600 "Report: Falcons, Jags Make DT Trade")
.jpg?w=600 "New NBA Mock Draft 📝")
