Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Jacksonville almost snapped its long road losing streak last week in Indianapolis but found a way to extend it to 11 games. The Jags take another shot at their first road victory in two seasons when they head across the state for a visit with the Buccaneers in Tampa Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: The Buccaneers opened as three-point favorites; the total was 42 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 23.8-20.2 Buccaneers

Why the Jaguars can cover the spread

The Jags are coming off a tough 16-13 loss to the Indianapolis Colts last week but hung on for the cover as four-point road dogs. Jacksonville led at the half 13-10 and had two chances to retake the lead after the game had been tied, but kicker Jason Myers missed a pair of field goals, one at the end of regulation and another in overtime, although neither was exactly a chip shot.

The Jaguars outgained Indy 431-326 and outrushed the Colts 142-60, but 13 penalties proved costly.

On the season, the Jags have outrushed opponents by a 105-83 yards-per-game margin, with help from rookie running back T.J. Yeldon, who ran for 105 last week, and an improving defense. So far this NFL betting season, teams that have outrushed their opponents are 42-21 straight up and 41-20 against the spread.

Why the Buccaneers can cover the spread

The Bucs are coming off a 37-23 loss at home to the Carolina Panthers, but that game would have been a lot closer if not for Tampa Bay's mistakes. The Buccaneers fell down 10-0 in part on another Jameis Winston pick-six, trailed only 17-10 at the half, but gave up another Panthers defensive touchdown on a fumble early in the third quarter and couldn't recover.

On the day, Tampa Bay outgained Carolina 411-244 and held the ball for over 32 minutes, but four Winston interceptions and a pair of missed field goals when the game was still close spelled doom.

Two weeks ago, the Bucs got outplayed by the Houston Texans and lost 19-9 but only trailed by one score late into the fourth quarter. And three weeks ago, they upset the Saints in New Orleans, the only game this year Winston hasn't thrown a pick. If Winston can stop throwing the ball to the wrong shirts, Tampa can compete.

Smart pick

The team that wins the ground battle and makes the fewest mistakes will probably win this game and cover this spread, and that team is probably Jacksonville. So despite their recent troubles on the road, the smart choice here is the Jags, and they won't even need the points.

Betting trends

The Jaguars are 4-1 SU and ATS in their five games against the Buccaneers since 1995.

The Buccaneers are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games as home favorites.

The Buccaneers are 0-6 SU and ATS in their last six games before the bye.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.