Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Longhorns Betting Odds, Analysis, Football Pick

Oklahoma is 4-1 over the last five Red River Rivalry bouts with Texas, but the Longhorns have covered the last two, pulling off a shocking upset two seasons ago as two-touchdown dogs, then scaring the Sooners last season while getting 16 points. Texas is dogged again for Saturday's shootout at the Cotton Bowl.

Point spread: Sooners opened as 13.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 38.5-19.5 Sooners

Why the Oklahoma Sooners can cover the spread

OU is off to a 4-0 start this season—and is 3-1 against the spread—after dispatching West Virginia last week 44-24. The Sooners grabbed an early 24-7 lead, let the Mountaineers get within a field goal at 27-24, but then pulled away with help from a beautiful 71-yard Baker Mayfield-to-Durron Neal scoring connection and a fumble return for a score.

On the day, Oklahoma outgained West Virginia 427-369, and most of the Mountaineers' yardage came while playing catch-up. The Sooners also forced five West Virginia turnovers, helping OU cover as a seven-point home favorite.

On the season Oklahoma is averaging 522 yards of offense and 42 points per game. Now the Sooners go up against a very troubled Texas team that's allowing over 500 yards per game this season. This one could get ugly.

Why the Texas Longhorns can cover the spread

Texas lost a couple of close games earlier this month, but laid a big egg last week, losing at TCU 50-7. And no amount of polish can put a shine on that pile of manure. The Longhorns trailed 30-0 after the first quarter, and 50-0 late, before avoiding the shutout with a meaningless score with five minutes to go.

Two weeks ago Texas lost to Oklahoma State 30-27, blowing that game on special teams. And just before that the 'Horns lost to Cal 45-44 on a missed extra point. So perhaps the situation with this team isn't as bad as we're led to believe.

Potential Texas backers might take some solace in the fact that unranked teams are 50-38 (57 percent) ATS against ranked teams so far this college football season.

Smart pick

There's a chance this spread is inflated a bit, and there's also a chance the rivalry will inspire the Longhorns. However, until Texas shows some kind of improvement it should probably be faded. The smart choice here is the Sooners.

Betting trends

The total has gone over in eight of Oklahoma's last 10 games against the Big 12.

The total has gone over in Oklahoma's last six games in October.

Texas is 1-6 SU and ATS in its last seven games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.