Why 20 Is Realistic 2015/16 Goals Target for Manchester United's Anthony Martial

Anthony Martial's electric start at Manchester United has been an absolute joy to watch.

There were plenty of doubts when he arrived. He was not the big-name signing fans were hoping for, but he came with the big price tag. Not too many United fans—other than those who follow French football closely—would have been familiar with him.

Wayne Rooney had reportedly never heard of him. Morgan Schneiderlin said, per Rob Dawson of Manchester Evening News: 

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On the plane, Wayne Rooney came to speak to me and asked me who Martial was, because the English press had started to speak.

I told him he's a great player with great potential, who has played some good matches with Monaco last season and the the beginning of this. I told him he is technical and powerful. A little like Thierry Henry, even if it's the press who are making that comparison.

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It is not just the press making that comparison now. It is unavoidable. The way he has opened up his body to slot side-footed finishes past the 'keeper for three of his four goals so far make it impossible not to call to mind Henry at his best.

His profile has risen considerably over the past few weeks, and those initial doubts are fading quickly. First came his Liverpool moment—a stunning, unforgettable debut. That spectacular start was heartening, but what has been even more remarkable has been the duck-to-water quality he has displayed when leading the line for United.

Four goals in as many games, only failing to score in one Champions League tie—a game in which he consistently impressed with his link-up work and all-round modern centre-forward play.

On the basis he is averaging a goal a game, the realistic expectations for his season's goal tally could be very high indeed.

Of course, you would expect a 19-year-old to go through peaks and troughs of form over the course of a campaign. Strikers have purple patches—Robin van Persie looked close to unstoppable in November and December of 2014, only for his form to tail off badly over the course of the season.

There is the possibility of injury, something that looms over every player. There is also the possibility that things will turn sour. Angel Di Maria started his United career in excellent form before suffering a dip. He cited difficulties settling in Manchester and disagreements with manager Louis van Gaal as instrumental in his decision to leave after just one season, per Le Parisien (h/t the Guardian).

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Presumably they affected his form when he was present too, and both are possibilities for Martial.

When assessing the likelihood of future events, there will always be a limited palette of information to work with. It is all educated guesswork at this point.

The working assumptions for the rest of Martial's season, though, are that his hot streak will cool off at some point. There will likely be minor knocks, but if what we have seen so far is any indication, we can expect he will keep scoring when he plays.

How often he plays remains an intriguing question. He has made two starts for United—one of those when Rooney was absent through injury. It would be interesting to know why Van Gaal left him out of the starting line-up against Ipswich Town.

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Was it to avoid unnecessary risks with the youngster, or did he want Rooney to get another chance at No. 9? If it is the latter, that would point to Martial perhaps not being an automatic selection in the first XI. It was a League Cup game against Championship opposition, so it is dangerous to read into it too much, but the questions remain.

They will be answered in the coming weeks. If he stays in the team and keeps up something approaching this form, then 20 goals in all competitions seems an almost unnecessarily conservative estimate.

After all, his goals—barring the Liverpool strike—have not required the outrageous brilliance of a striker in the best form of his life. Rather they have been well-taken, well-crafted centre-forward goals. The kind of goals that are replicable.

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The team is well set up for a dynamic, intelligent and able centre-forward to thrive. Van Gaal's system should allow the midfielders and creative forwards to shift players out of position with incisive passing, and Martial has created space to work in with clever movement.

The last three domestic games have seen the side score nine goals, a rate that would have seemed fanciful before his arrival. Now, though, scoring goals is something United can do again, and Martial himself should get plenty of them.

He could even get more, but with all the caveats around possible injuries and rotation, 20 seems a realistic target.

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After all, he is almost a quarter of the way there already, four games into what promises to be a memorable debut season for United's surprise star.