Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Houston Texans Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Houston Texans are 5-1 both straight up and against the spread over their last six games against the NFC South, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS in their last seven meetings with the AFC South. The Texans shoot for their first victory of this season when they host the Bucs on Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: The Texans opened as four-point favorites; the total was 41.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 26.6-18.8 Texans

Why the Buccaneers can cover the spread

The Bucs just picked up their first victory with rookie quarterback Jameis Winston, beating the Saints in New Orleans last week 26-19 and winning outright as 10-point underdogs, which is a neat feat in the NFL. Tampa Bay scored seven points in the last minute-and-a-half of the second quarter and then scored on the first drive of the second half to take control.

On the day, the Bucs outrushed the Saints 139-104, while Winston completed 14 of 21 throws for 207 yards and one score with no interceptions. Meanwhile, the defense sacked Drew Brees four times and picked him off once.

Tampa Bay opened this season with a bad loss at home to the Tennessee Titans, so last week's performance came as a welcome turnaround.

Winston progressed from his first start to his second, and if he shows more progress this week and gets some help from the running game, the Buccaneers could pull off another upset.

Why the Texans can cover the spread

The Texans are 0-2 both SU and ATS after falling at Carolina 24-17. Houston played the Panthers to a 10-10 tie late into the third quarter, pulled to within one score with six minutes left and reached the Carolina red zone in the final minute, but an intentional grounding penalty killed the rally.

Quarterback Ryan Mallett, making the start in place of Brian Hoyer, hit on 27 of 58 throws for 244 yards and did a decent job of spreading the ball around, as six Texans caught at least two passes.

The Texans went 9-7 last year, and that came in their first season under new head coach Bill O'Brien, so there's no need for panic. With a quicker start Sunday, Houston should come up with its first victory of the season.

Smart pick

Tampa Bay just pulled off a big divisional upset, which means it might be a good time to expect a letdown and play the fade. The smart money here takes the Texans.

Betting trends

The Buccaneers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games against the AFC South.

The Texans are 6-0 SU in their last six games as home favorites in September.

The Texans are 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six home games against the NFC South.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.