Dave's Free Pick ATS: Sept. 9

dave darbySenior Analyst ISeptember 10, 2009

DENVER - AUGUST 31:  Anthony Perkins #46 of the University of Colorado Buffaloes celebrates as teammate Josh Smith #1 returns a kick off 93 yards for a touchdown to take a 21-7 lead over the Colorado State University Rams at Invesco Field at Mile High on August 31, 2008 in Denver, Colorado.John Nosure #7 of Colorado State returned the ensuing kick off for a touchdown against Colorado.  (Photo by Doug Pensinger/Getty Images)

Colorado (0-1) at Toledo (0-1)

Line: Colorado -4

Colorado comes off of a horrible showing at home against Colorado State in which they lost 23-17 in a game in which they were favored by double digits. The Colorado offense was stagnant and produced just 251 total yards including just 29 on the ground. Good luck with that come Big 12 time.

With a run game like that, it is not surprising the Buffalo offense is usually heavy on the passing side. Colorado State had CU quarterback Cody Hawkins running for his life most of the game. The defense didn't fare much better, giving up 376 yards in the first half to go with the 20 CSU points. The defense did show a ray of hope in the second half, limiting their opponent to just one field goal.

Toledo went on the road week one against Purdue and had success on offense after getting down 21-0. Aaron Opelt set a Toledo record with 67 pass attempts while completing 41 passes for 423 yards. The senior quarterback mixed in two interceptions to go with his three TD passes. Purdue was just too much on offense for the Rockets to keep up. The Boilermakers amassed 535 total yards including 315 on the ground while protecting their lead.

This is a tough turnaround road game for Colorado who played on Sunday and now is in front of a national audience on the following Friday night. If Colorado isn't there defensively, this could be an ugly two losses to start the Buffalo season. Both teams failed to cover in week one. Colorado is 1-4 against the spread in their last five road games while Toledo is 6-3 against the number in their last nine home games. Not looking good for CU. I'm on Toledo and have a close eye on the money line.

Dave's Pick: Toledo +4