Preakness 2015 Post Positions: Odds and Predictions for Every Horse

One of the great things about the Preakness Stakes is that, no matter what, the field size is smaller than the Kentucky Derby. For the 2015 renewal of the Preakness, the field is real small, eight horses in all.

That makes the race infinitely easier to handicap and also infinitely easier for the jockeys to navigate through the field. Instead of rush hour, we have a Sunday Saturday drive.

And the big story is Bob Baffert's American Pharoah and Dortmund. Baffert’s Batman and Robin not only drew next to each other but drew the two inside posts. #PostDrawFail

“I can’t believe I drew the one-two of all draws,” Baffert told Pimlico’s media department after the draw. “I’m just glad I didn’t draw that for the Derby. Sometimes you’ve got to give a little. It’s a short field, eight horses. He still has to break well. If he’s the best horse, we’ll find out.”

Yes, we will. Read on for the morning-line odds (as provided by Pimlico Race Course) and analysis on the eight horses running for the Black-Eyed Susans.

Post 8: Firing Line

Morning-Line Odds: 4-1

Prediction: Second

The far outside is a perfect draw for this flashy colt and runner-up in the Kentucky Derby.

Jockey Gary Stevens should bounce clear of everyone to his inside and sit just off Dortmund heading into the clubhouse turn. Sound familiar? That’s what he did in Kentucky.

“We're happy with that,” trainer Simon Callaghan told Pimlico’s media department. “We've got options from out there. It's perfect. We're happy. I guess [the rail post position] makes it a little tougher for [American Pharoah], but we're certainly happy with our post position.''

It’s going to be a dogfight down the lane, more so than in the Derby. It's a good thing he has experience fighting Dortmund as he did in the Robert B. Lewis.

And think about this: Firing Line is far fresher. John Pricci of HorseRaceInsider.com wrote:

"

On Saturday, American Pharoah will be making his fourth start in 63 days; Firing Line his fourth in 84. Doesn’t seem like much of a difference, does it? 

However, when it comes to last-three-outs spacing, the difference is exacerbated: Saturday was will AP’s third start in 35 days, but will be FL’s third in 55 days; the same level of freshness but in a shorter timeframe.

"

Firing Line should get a perfect trip, and American Pharoah will have his work cut out for him from far inside.

Anything less than second for Firing Line will be a disappointment, and he's a great win bet at 4-1.

Post 7: Divining Rod

Morning-Line Odds: 12-1

Prediction: Fifth

Divining Rod could be a wild card in the Preakness. In five lifetime starts he hasn’t finished worse than third.

Divining Rod is a forwardly placed horse, like so many in this field. When he won the Lexington Stakes, he was able to take back from the inside and do his running later in the race.

Breaking from Post 7 should allow him to keep Firing Line wide, or he can bounce clear of the two closers to his left and settle in a nice pocket behind the speed.

“There is a lot of speed on the inside with American Pharoah and Dortmund,” trainer Arnaud Delacour told Pimlico’s media department. “We should be able to get a position, sit off the pace and see what happens.”

Post 6: Bodhisattva

Morning-Line Odds: 20-1

Prediction: Sixth

Bodhisattva is the local hero.

He won the Federico Tesio Stakes over this very track. It was a game win, but as most runnings of the Tesio go, it was pretty slow. That matters little for trainer Jose Corrales.

“I like the outside position better than the inside position,” he told Pimlico’s media department. “The other two horses inside of me (Dortmund and American Pharaoh) have a lot of speed. My horse used to be a come-from-behind horse, but now he can play either way. It’s a tough race; we’ll see what happens from there.”

Having that kind of range will be crucial for Bodhisattva. There’s speed inside and speed outside with Firing Line. Bodhisattva doesn’t have the class to hang with the big dogs up front, so any running this horse does will be from behind.

Post 5: Tale of Verve

Garry Jones/Associated Press

Morning-Line Odds: 30-1

Prediction: Seventh

Another new shooter, Tale of Verve comes in off his maiden win at Keeneland back on April 23. It took him six tries to finally get that first win, but it was enough for trainer Dallas Stewart to enter him in this big race. Stewart finished second to Big Brown in 2008 with Macho Again.

“My post position is fine,” Stewart told Pimlico’s media department. “We’re in the middle, and he’s a come-from-behind horse.”

His saving grace, if any, is that he has won a race over the Preakness distance of 1 3/16 miles.

That’s about it.

Post 4: Danzig Moon

Morning-Line Odds: 15-1

Prediction: Fourth

Danzig Moon ran a solid fifth in the Kentucky Derby and has earned his chance at redemption in the Preakness.

He’s the type of horse who likes to do his running late and should get a decent trip given the two speed bombs to his immediate left.

“I thought it was a great post,” trainer Mark Casse told Pimlico’s media department. “We know they’re all going to outrun us, so hopefully we can tuck in. Hopefully the rail’s good and we can come with a good run.” 

He’ll take back and try to save ground. It’ll be his only chance against the Big Three.

Post 3: Mr. Z

Garry Jones/Associated Press

Morning-Line Odds: 20-1

Prediction: Eighth

Leave it to Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas to get a horse into the Preakness. He trained Mr. Z for Ahmed Zayat, the owner of American Pharoah. Mr. Z wasn’t going to wheel back for Zayat, but what if the horse was privately sold to Calumet Farms? Would he run then?

Uh, huh.

Lukas retains trainer status for Mr. Z, who will now carry black and gold silks. Lukas won the Preakness for Calumet in 2013 with Oxbow.

Lukas told Pimlico’s media department:

"

We're going to probably be forwardly placed. We've got a horse on the outside of us, a couple of them, that haven't got a lot of speed, so I think we'll be OK from there. It's a good spot. I was very pleased with it.

He didn't get any chance to run in the Derby. I think he'll run a good race. He didn't get a lot out of the Derby and he's training well. We'll give him a shot. I've been lucky here before.

"

Mr. Z is a cut below, and if he gets caught up in a hot pace with Dortmund and Firing Line, he’s liable to slip. He has speed, just not prime speed.

Post 2: Dortmund

Garry Jones/Associated Press

Morning-Line Odds: 7-2

Prediction: Third

Baffert’s other talented colt drew the neighboring stall to American Pharoah. This shouldn’t be too much of an issue for this horse.

He set the pace in the Derby in a large 18-horse field. With only seven other threats in the Preakness, finding the front should be far simpler for him and jockey Martin Garcia.

Dortmund has guts. We just didn’t get a chance to see it in the Kentucky Derby. The reason? Gary Stevens, Firing Line’s jockey, kept his horse far outside of Dortmund so Dortmund couldn’t dig in like he did in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes a few months back.

Dortmund will be on the lead again, and he’s a serious threat to win the Preakness and cut the Triple Crown off at the knees in Baltimore, but that inside post does him no favors with Firing Line sitting chilly in Post 8.

Post 1: American Pharoah

Morning-Line Odds: 4-5

Prediction: First

What’s the good news? One, the field is small. Two, the likely speed is to his immediate right. Three, he gets a chance to save ground.

What’s the bad news? He’s on the far inside, and the bull’s-eye gets a whole lot easier to hit with him trapped down on the fence.

Baffert told Pimlico’s media department:

"

I don’t like the inside. I never like the one-hole. Sometimes they don’t break as well. He’s drawn the one-hole before at Santa Anita. When I was watching the draw and all these numbers were coming up, I go, ‘This is not looking good.’ It’s the luck of draw. We’re there. I don’t love it, but they’ll be easy to watch.

"

If he’s the best the horse, which he is, he should overcome it. The key will be whether or not jockey Victor Espinoza can pilot American Pharoah off the fence and into the clear, thus allowing him a free shot when it’s go time.

Dortmund, Mr. Z and Firing Line will vie for the lead, and American Pharoah should get a window off the fence and into the four path.

If he wins, will he have enough in the tank for the Triple Crown? History says no, but that's why we'll watch.