Preakness 2015: Early Contenders to Watch on American Pharoah's Triple Crown Bid

The Preakness Stakes is just under two weeks away, and we're already starting to hype up our next possible Triple Crown winner.

To be fair, Kentucky Derby champion American Pharoah looks the part of a Preakness and Triple Crown winner. On the flip side, to expect any horse to complete a sweep of all three legs in this day and age is teetering on ridiculous.

Either way, AP is going to run on Saturday, May 16, and he'll surely go to Pimlico as the odds-on favorite to win the 140th running of the Preakness.

A solid crop of three-year-olds will be looking to knock him off his newly formed pedestal, though, and a few have a legitimate shot to stop the Triple Crown buzz from developing into anything close to what we saw with California Chrome last year.

The field isn't set yet outside of early commits Divining Rod and Bodhisattva, so to get an a feel for who might run, we'll use the "probables" list from HorseRacingNation.com.

To start you off, I'm going to hit on a few "key" facts about the Preakness, then follow with a replay of the Kentucky Derby before moving into a discussion about three different horses looking to knock off American Pharoah.

Preakness Facts

• Distance: 1 3/16 miles—shortest of Triple Crown races.
• Track carries speed bias.
• A Kentucky Derby runner has won the Preakness in every year since 2007.
• A Kentucky Derby winner has won the Preakness six times since 2000.
• Of Bob Baffert's four Derby winners, three have gone on to win the Preakness (the fourth outlier is Pharoah, who has yet to run in the Preakness).

Kentucky Derby Replay

Firing Line and Dortmund

If you watched the Kentucky Derby, or at least watched the replay above, then it should be abundantly clear why I've chosen to group these two horses together. The two ran extremely similar races, and for me, the deciding factor was the difference in the riding styles of Gary Stevens (Firing Line) and Martin Garcia (Dortmund).

Through most of the race, Dortmund and Firing Line matched each other stride for stride. In fact, through the one-mile marker, the two were separated by just a head.

Garry Jones/Associated Press

However, Stevens set himself and Firing Line up for a better shot to take down Pharoah in the stretch run. Stevens sent Firing Line out to "mini" runs at Dortmund, forcing Garcia to expend precious energy in order to either draw even with or regain the lead from Firing Line.

Firing Line held the lead for an extremely short period of time during the stretch run but relinquished it to American Pharoah rather quickly, settling for a second-place finish.

Dortmund started to falter in the stretch run and was nearly run down by fourth-place finisher and likely Belmont Stakes runner Frosted. Even so, Dortmund, like Firing Line, should welcome the slight cut-back in distance.

Both colts will need to recover extremely quickly after working much, much harder than Pharoah in the Derby.

That said if any two horses are capable of getting out to early leads and setting a rather modest pace, it's Dortmund and Firing Line. If they move slowly again through the first three quarters, one of these two could easily sneak out of Pimlico with a victory.

International Star

International Star is another possible Preakness runner, and he, unlike the two horses we looked at above, will come into the Preakness with a few weeks of extra rest.

The Fusaichi Pegasus colt scratched out of the Belmont last week with what was described as a quarter crack in his hoof:

That said, according to Alicia Wincze of Kentucky.com, owner Ken Ramsey stated that so long as the crack heals well, we could see him in the Preakness later this month:

So, operating under the premise that he'll be running on May 16, what exactly are his chances at beating American Pharoah?

Well, for starters, according to OddsShark.com, International Star was the eighth choice in the Derby at 18-1 odds. Prior to his quest to win the Derby being cut short, the Michael Maker-trained colt was the winner of three straight, including two Grade 2 races, those being the Louisiana Derby (March 28), the Risen Star (Feb. 21) and the Grade 3 Lecomte (Jan. 17).

International Star also showed a steady track record of improvement, logging improved Beyer numbers in five straight races dating back to a disappointing ninth-place showing in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf.

That track record of improvement came to a head in the Louisiana Derby (shown in the video below), where the young colt edged out fellow Derby scratch Stanford by a neck.

In that race, International Star posted a 98 Beyer and flew from the start, coming from as far back as seven lengths and closing hard into very slow fractions.

International Star may also benefit from an upgrade in the class of his rider, as several prominent jockeys will be looking for mounts when it comes time to announce the field and draw post positions.

Even if he pulls Miguel Mena for the mount in the Preakness, a healthy International Star has a very good chance to make some noise in the Preakness. The Ramsey-owned colt has shown the ability to close from well off the pace and has done so behind some very slow leaders.

With a little bit of added pace up front, International Star could pose a serious threat to American Pharoah's Triple Crown chances.

Beyer Speed Figures courtesy of Daily Racing Form.

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