Music City Bowl Betting: Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. LSU Tigers Odds, Pick

Perennial bowl participant Notre Dame is playing in a bowl again this season, but bettors might be wise to be wary of the Irish, who are just 3-11 both straight up and against the spread in their last 14 bowl appearances. Notre Dame will try to put those trends in reverse when it meets up with LSU in the 17th edition of the Music City Bowl on Tuesday, December 30 at LP Field in Nashville.

Music City Bowl point spread: Tigers opened as 7.5-point favorites; the total was 52 (line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark computer prediction: 34.9-28.0 Tigers

Why the Fighting Irish can cover the spread

The Irish started 6-0 this season with a win over Stanford, but then they lost that game at Florida State on an iffy offensive pass-interference call in the final seconds. Notre Dame lost its last four contests, but it basically gifted a game to Arizona State then lost by a field goal to both Northwestern and Louisville.

And it basically botched that game against the Wildcats too. Eliminate a few turnovers, and the Irish might be 9-3. Finally, with the cover as a nine-point dog against the Seminoles, Notre Dame is now 5-1 ATS the last six times it has been lined as a dog of six points or more.

Why the Tigers can cover the spread

The Bayou Bengals disappointed this season, coming up short in their quest for an SEC title, but still went 8-4 ATS. Louisiana State suffered four losses this year—to Mississippi State, Auburn, Alabama (in overtime) and Arkansas, four teams that are a combined 36-13 and all headed to bowls.

The Tigers also ended the regular season on a good note, winning at Texas A&M 23-17, outgaining the Aggies 491-228. LSU ranks 29th in the country in rushing at 220 yards per game, eighth in total defense and 38th against the run, holding foes to 144 yards per game.

It also allowed just 64 points total over its last five contests and held the high-powered Tide, who averaged 37 points per game, to just one offensive touchdown through regulation.

Smart Pick

Notre Dame faded hard at the end of this season, losing four games in a row SU, five in a row ATS. Quarterback Everett Golson seemed to regress as the season progressed, and the Irish got outrushed each of their last five games by an average of more than 100 yards per game.

LSU, meanwhile, has outrushed five of its last six foes, as freshman running back Leonard Fournette began to find his footing. The team most likely to win this game and cover this spread is likely the team that wins the ground battle, and that team is most likely to be the Tigers.

Trends

• Notre Dame is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games.
• The total has gone under in five of LSU's last five games.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.