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Are Ohio State's College Football Playoff Hopes Dead?

Ben AxelrodDec 2, 2014

COLUMBUS, Ohio — Did the latest College Football Playoff rankings provide good news or bad news for Ohio State?

How about a little of both?

The Buckeyes entered Tuesday night as college football's greatest conundrum, riding a 10-game winning streak into the Big Ten Championship Game but also dealing with the broken ankle suffered by quarterback J.T. Barrett in last weekend's win over Michigan.

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Nevertheless, Ohio State managed to rise a spot in this week's rankings to No. 5, as the committee declined to punish the Buckeyes—yet—for their star player's season-ending injury.

"Ohio State's situation has not been impacted to this point due to J.T. Barrett's injury," playoff committee chair Jeff Long said on Tuesday's ESPN rankings reveal. "We will evaluate his injury and his replacement in this championship game. The No. 5 ranking of Ohio State is not impacted at this point."

That's good news for the Buckeyes.

Because at the very least, backup quarterback Cardale Jones will be given a one-game opportunity to prove that he's a capable replacement for Barrett.

If Jones lights it up or the drop-off between him and Barrett isn't significant, it's safe to assume that Ohio State will remain firmly entrenched in the playoff committee's discussionso long as the Buckeyes win.

1.Alabama11-1
2.Oregon11-1
3.TCU10-1
4.Florida State12-0
5.Ohio State11-1
6.Baylor10-1
7.Arizona10-2
8.Michigan State10-2
9.Kansas State9-2
10.Mississippi State10-2

Now for the bad news.

While Ohio State may have climbed to No. 5 following a loss by former No. 4 Mississippi State, it wasn't the only team to make a move on Tuesday. In fact, TCU's jump from No. 5 to No. 3 was the biggest news of the night, with the Horned Frogs jumping now-No. 4 Florida State.

That's telling in the sense that the committee thinks enough of TCU at this point to rank it ahead of the defending national champion Seminoles, who also happen to be the country's only undefeated team.

As Long explained, Florida State's fall had more to do with its string of close calls than it did the Horned Frogs' 48-10 win over 6-6 Texas last week.

"I think they're very close to being No. 3," Long said of the Seminoles. "In the last three weeks, they've had unranked opponents that they've struggled with. I think that's what had an impact on Florida State's position at four."

And while that may be the case, it still could spell bad news for the Buckeyes.

While it was previously thought that a win in the Big Ten title game would be enough for Ohio State to jump into the top four, that was when it was assumed that the Buckeyes would be comparing themselves against TCU, Mississippi State and Baylor.

Regardless of what the Buckeyes do in Indianapolis on Saturday, it's hard to imagine any scenario where they pass the unbeaten Seminoles, should both teams win their conference title games.

Nov 1, 2014; Columbus, OH, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Cardale Jones (12) against the Illinois Fighting Illini at Ohio Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports

But Ohio State's playoff chances aren't dead just yet.

Outside of the possibility of receiving help in the form of No. 1 Alabama, No. 2 Oregon and/or Florida State losing their conference title games, the Buckeyes will have one last chance to make their playoff case against 13th-ranked Wisconsin this weekend.

TCU, meanwhile, faces off with 2-9 Iowa State, a game which will hardly boost the Horned Frogs' resume, regardless of the final score.

A win in the Circle City would also give Ohio State a conference championship, which matters because the committee has stated that it will place an emphasis on league titles.

But that's where this situation becomes even more complicated, as the committee is still unsure how it would differentiate between an outright conference champion like the Buckeyes and a potential co-league champion like TCU.

"We will take that into account, whether it's one champion or a co-champion. And championships are certainly what we are supposed to consider," Long said. "We haven't discussed that in the committee room because it hasn't happened yet. But we'll certainly have a discussion and a debate about that if there is a co-champion."

Of course, comparing Ohio State and TCU is tricky right now, as Florida State still sits between the two.

Assuming the Seminoles beat No. 11 Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship Game, it's probably a safe bet that they'll reclaim their No. 3 ranking, given the slim margin that the committee stated the Horned Frogs led them by.

Nov 27, 2014; Austin, TX, USA; TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Trevone Boykin (2) drops back to pass against the Texas Longhorns during the game at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brendan Maloney-USA TODAY Sports

This would leave the committee debating between TCU, Ohio State and Baylor for the fourth and final playoff spot. The Buckeyes already hold an apparent edge over Baylor, which plays No. 9 Kansas State this weekend, but it remains unclear whether this weekend will be enough for OSU to pass a team currently ranked two spots ahead of it.

Add the unknown nature of the Buckeyes' quarterback situation to the mix, and conference championship weekend won't be short on intrigue. Everything at this point in the process remains unprecedented, but Ohio State remains firmly in the mix with five days to go until the playoff field is chosen.

Led by a player who at one point was their third-string quarterback, that's all the Buckeyes can really ask for.

Ben Axelrod is Bleacher Report's Ohio State lead writer. You can follow him on Twitter @BenAxelrod. Unless noted otherwise, all quotes obtained firsthand. All statistics courtesy of cfbstats.com and recruiting information courtesy of 247Sports.

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