Updated Odds for Seattle Mariners to Sign Top 5 Remaining Free-Agent Targets

The Seattle Mariners' list of free-agent targets is quickly shrinking.

According to Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal and ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick, Seattle was interested in Victor Martinez recently and Billy Butler leading up to the trade deadline, but those two players signed in the early weeks of free agency. Confirmed on Tuesday, Hanley Ramirez also agreed to a deal with the Boston Red Sox after Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported the Mariners were “aggressively pursuing” Ramirez two weeks ago.

It appears that Seattle will have to turn to the trade market to address its needs in the outfield or DH. Still, the Mariners must avoid making any desperate decisions, as there are still a few free agents available who could help the team.

Nelson Cruz is the most likely free-agent addition, while others have longer odds to come to Seattle.

Melky Cabrera, Outfield

STEVE NESIUS/Associated Press

Cabrera is a long shot, but makes some sense for the Mariners.

Although Melky Cabrera hasn't been discussed as much as Cruz or Martinez, he makes sense as a potential fit. Cabrera is a switch-hitter who can DH or play the corner outfield (albeit poorly) and is relatively young compared to some of Seattle's other targets.

Following an injury-plagued 2013 campaign with the Toronto Blue Jays, Cabrera bounced backed with a .301/.351/.458 line last season. Those numbers would greatly improve Seattle's lineup, so what's stopping the Mariners from going hard after Cabrera?

There are several teams interested, including the Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles, according to the Toronto Star's Richard Griffin. Cabrera is not going to come cheaply as a result, which is concerning given his defensive play and injury history.

Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune reports that Cabrera prefers to sign with a team in the East or Midwest. Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com adds that the Seattle ownership didn't want any players connected to performance-enhancing drugs last winter, although it's hard to imagine the Mariners backing away from someone who could help them win a World Series at this point.

Odds: 20-1. There are several teams in the mix, and Cabrera feels like a long shot.

Nelson Cruz, Outfield

Associated Press

Will Cruz finally come to Seattle, or will the Mariners decide there are too many warning signs?

For the second consecutive winter, the Mariners have been heavily linked to Cruz, this time by Bob Nightengale of USA Today.

Following a 2013 season cut short by suspension, Cruz responded with one of the best offensive seasons of his career. Cruz hit .271/.333/.525 while leading the majors with 40 home runs.

There are still several red flags here. Cruz is 34, will be looking for a four-year deal, per Heyman, is a poor defender and posted just a 113 wRC+ in the second half of 2014.

Despite all that, Cruz will be a short-term upgrade over what the Mariners had at DH a year ago. There's a price where Cruz would make sense for Seattle and the Mariners could forgive a couple years of a poor contract if he helped them win while the window is open.

Unfortunately, that price may have came last offseason, when Cruz singed a bargain one-year, $8 million deal. Still, as more free agents come off the board, it's going to be tempting for Seattle to pull the trigger.

Odds: 5-1. Cruz seems like the free agent the Mariners are most likely to sign, for better or worse. Making a trade might be an even more likely scenario.

Brandon McCarthy, SP

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McCarthy would be a nice, inexpensive addition to the middle of Seattle's rotation.

The Mariners could use another starter to add depth and take some pressure off of the young trio at the back of the rotation. There's a slim chance Seattle could go after Jon Lester, but a more realistic scenario is adding a cheaper mid-level starter.

McCarthy appears to fit that role perfectly. After outpitching his peripherals for a number of years, McCarthy put it all together last season following a trade to the New York Yankees, posting a 2.89 ERA (3.22 FIP) over 90.1 innings.

The 31-year-old believes utilizing his cutter was the key to his strong performance in New York after the Arizona Diamondbacks would not allow him to throw the pitch, via John Harper of the New York Daily News. 

"It’s hard to keep major league hitters off of just one pitch. The cutter neutralizes the inner half of the plate against lefthanders, and you can do things away to righthanders with it.It kind of helps set up everything else and gives you some room to work."

There are injury concerns with McCarthy, so he's unlikely to command more than a three-year deal. New York will want McCarthy back and may be willing to outbid Seattle, but McCarthy makes sense for the Mariners otherwise.

Odds: 10-1. McCarthy is a nice fit in Seattle and the Mariners have to push hard if New York doesn’t re-sign him.

Alex Rios, Outfield

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Rios will garner the attention of several teams as a last resort option for help in the outfield.

If Cruz and Cabrera end up elsewhere, the Mariners will need to turn to second-tier free-agent outfielders. The free-agency class has little depth, making players like Alex Rios or Torri Hunter the best candidates.

Rios had a terrible 2014 season, posting a 92 wRC+ and 0.2 WAR while dealing with injuries. However, that makes him a potential buy-low bounce-back candidate for 2014.

Like other potential Seattle targets, Rios is aging and a defensive liability. Still, Rios has upside at the plate and posted a combined 7.3 WAR in the two seasons prior to last year.

Rios is unlikely to command more than one year and about $10 million, so he could be an option if the Mariners are looking to save some money. If several other players come off the board and the trade market falls through, Seattle could take a look at Rios, but it might be wary of such a move after signing Corey Hart last offseason.

Odds: 25-1. Rios is a fallback option at best, and several teams will be looking at him.

Yasmany Tomas, Outfield

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While the Mariners aren't the favorite to land Tomas, nobody can predict for sure where he might end up.

Yasmany Tomas is the ultimate enigma of the 2014 offseason. Some team is going to pay a lot of money for a player who may or may not translate to the majors, but Tomas offers a rare chance to get a free agent with plus power at the age of 24.

As a right-handed corner outfielder with power, Tomas is exactly the type of player the Mariners have been coveting for years. According to Peter Gammons (h/t Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors), the Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants and San Diego Padres have extended offers for Tomas, with Seattle “lurking on the periphery,” in Adams' words.

The Mariners may not have the $100 million to spend on Tomas, particularly after extending Kyle Seager on Monday. Still, it's impossible to predict where Tomas might land, and it wouldn't be shocking to see him sign with any of the aforementioned favorites or a “mystery team.”

Odds: 20-1. The Mariners don't appear to be real players for Tomas, but the Cuban market can be unpredictable.

All stats via FanGraphs.com unless otherwise noted.