How Would Florida State Fare If 2014 'Noles Played in SEC?

Playing in the ACC has been a great and awful thing for Florida State this season: great because teams like Louisville and NC State are flawed enough to surrender huge first-half leads, but awful because it keeps us from #TalkinBoutTheNoles as often as we probably should (26 hours a day, give or take).

The defending national champion is No. 2 in the College Football Playoff standings despite having not lost a game in 717 days. The only team ahead of it is Mississippi State, which began the year unranked but climbed ahead of FSU, ostensibly, because going 9-0 in the SEC is perceived as more difficult than going 9-0 in any other league.

The 'Noles have yet to play an SEC team this season. The only team they've played that has crossed over into the SEC is Clemson, which lost to Georgia (45-21) much more thoroughly than it lost to Florida State (23-17 in overtime) but didn't have to face Jameis Winston.

We'll learn more about Florida State vis-a-vis the SEC when it hosts Florida November 29. But until then, all we can do is speculate.

How might the 'Noles have fared in the "best" conference in America?

A pro-Florida State argument would point to last year's BCS National Championship Game, when the Seminoles beat SEC champion Auburn 34-31 on a touchdown in the final 13 seconds.

But it's specious to equate 2013 Florida State with 2014 Florida State. This is not the same team as last year. Last year's team was No. 1 in the F/+ ratings at Football Outsiders for the better part of the season, finishing with an overall efficiency of 49.2 percent.

This year's team has been worse across the board:

	2013 Florida State	2014 Florida State
Overall F/+ (Rank)	49.2% (1)	27.8% (9)
Offensive F/+ (Rank)	21.5% (3)	17.6% (4)
Defensive F/+ (Rank)	25.7% (1)	8.9% (29)

The most obvious decline has been on defense, where a unit that last year led the country now barely cracks the top 30. That would give FSU the No. 7 defense in the SEC (with Florida not far behind).

The defense doesn't do a single thing well according to the more specialized S&P+ ratings at Football Outsiders, ranking No. 91 against the run and No. 70 against the pass. The best thing it does is prevent teams from finishing drives based on field position.

In a more traditional context, these struggles can be seen in the way FSU's defense performed against teams like Syracuse (5.03 yards per rush) and Louisville (8.70 yards per pass). The Orange have averaged 4.22 yards per rush in their other nine games, and the Cardinals have averaged 7.11 yards per pass.

"I've never been a part of any team where we missed that many tackles," safety Tyler Hunter said after a 56-41 win at NC State, per Bob Ferrante of Bleacher Report. "You're in college now, so you should know how to tackle."

Grant Halverson/Getty Images

In the SEC, tackling is not optional.

Auburn gained 449 yards on Florida State's No. 1-ranked defense in the national title game and actually ranks higher in offensive F/+ this season (22.6 percent) than last (19.5 percent). Dak Prescott and Josh Robinson are broken-tackle machines at Mississippi State, Todd Gurley is about to return at Georgia and Amari Cooper catches and breaks an average of roughly 1,000 bubble screens per game at Alabama.

Even unranked teams like Texas A&M and Arkansas have offenses that could hold off Florida State if the Seminoles spotted them one of their patented big deficits. The Aggies did precisely that after taking an early lead at Auburn this past weekend. They scored enough that Auburn could not claw its way into the win the column.

That is the difference between the lower-tier teams of the SEC and the NC States, Virginias and Syracuses that populate the ACC.

Mike Groll/Associated Press

In the video toward the top of this article (linked again here), Bleacher Report's Barrett Sallee indulged a similar FSU-to-the-SEC hypothetical, saying the 'Noles would have one loss if they played LSU's schedule. To me, that seems like a pretty fair assessment.

But it's fair in that it assumes a better version of the current Florida State team. In other words: The Florida State team that has showed up every week in ACC play would not have only one loss in SEC play. It would not have been able to overcome the slow starts it had against lesser competition against better-than-lesser competition.

Still, the offense has been good enough in the second halves of games, and Winston has been magical enough at quarterback, that this team, when focused, would have a chance to win the SEC. It wouldn't be undefeated, but it might be pretty close.

The four SEC teams ahead of Florida State on the F/+ rankings range from having no losses (Mississippi State) to one loss (Alabama) and two losses (Ole Miss and Auburn). The one SEC team directly behind it has three losses (LSU). 

Split those numbers up and account for the way FSU has been playing, and the data says it would likely be 7-2 through nine weeks.

It would be contending for an SEC West title, but it wouldn't be the favorite.

Not in 2014.

Follow Brian Leigh on Twitter: @BLeighDAT