Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: Betting Odds, Analysis and NFL Pick

The Pittsburgh Steelers will be rare home underdogs Sunday when they host the Indianapolis Colts at Heinz Field. The Steelers have been home dogs just seven times since 2005, going 5-1-1 against the spread (ATS) in those games and winning four of them straight up (SU). They are also 10-2-1 ATS in their past 13 games as home dogs dating back to 2000.

Point spread: The Colts opened as 1.5-point favorites; the total was 48 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (Line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 33.2-27.4 Colts

Why the Colts can cover the spread

The Colts have been the hottest team in the AFC over the past five weeks, going 5-0 SU and ATS since starting the season 0-2. They will be the second AFC South team in as many weeks to visit Pittsburgh and are much better than the Houston Texans, who blew an early 13-3 lead in a 30-23 loss to the Steelers on Monday Night Football.

Indianapolis has a huge advantage at the quarterback position though with Andrew Luck, the NFL’s top passer with a league-leading 2,331 passing yards and 19 touchdowns. The Texans did not have that same edge against Pittsburgh and ended up paying the price with a loss.

Why the Steelers can cover the spread

The Steelers found a way to win Monday despite being outplayed for most of the first half. Scoring three touchdowns in the final 1:27 of the second quarter against Houston not only turned the game around, it also gave Pittsburgh hope for the rest of the season. Losing that game to the Texans would have been devastating, but the Steelers can now put the victory in the rearview mirror and concentrate on improving upon their winning record.

They have a powerful rushing attack led by second-year running back Le’Veon Bell, who became the first Pittsburgh player in franchise history to start the season with seven straight 100-yard games of total offense in the win over Houston. Continuing to utilize Bell in both the running and the passing games can help the Steelers beat Indy.

Smart Pick

Pittsburgh is far from a perfect team, but giving this squad any kind of confidence is dangerous. That’s exactly what the Texans did Monday, and the Colts cannot be too happy about having to face the Steelers next. However, Indianapolis has been outstanding as a road favorite lately, going 4-0 SU and ATS in its past four games under that scenario.

The Colts have also covered three of the last four meetings with Pittsburgh and are a much smarter team than Houston. They proved that in a 33-28 road victory against the Texans two weeks ago, one of six games they have covered this season. While Pittsburgh may appear to be a good bet as a home dog, don’t be fooled by this Steelers team, and bet on Indy coming through with another cover instead.

Betting trends

• The total has gone over in five of Indianapolis' last seven games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh.
• Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last five games at home.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark; follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.