2014 Stock Watch for Drivers in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Chase: Week 32 Edition
With a Saturday night fight following the latest Chase for the Sprint Cup Contender Round race at Charlotte Motor Speedway, it's pretty obvious this 2014 Chase for the Sprint Cup is heating up.
And now it's on to the 2.66-mile Talladega Superspeedway—the most unpredictable track in NASCAR—to decide the Chase fate of every driver but Joey Logano and Kevin Harvick, who already have won their way into the next round.
Harvick did so by winning last Saturday's Bank of America 500, which was followed by a post-race skirmish on the cool-down lap and in the Sprint Cup garage between mostly Brad Keselowski and Matt Kenseth but also involving Denny Hamlin.
So which driver's stock is up, whose is down and who's on hold heading to Talladega—based on momentum, current place in the Contender Round standings and whether the driver is playing nice these days with his crew chief in this pressure-packed situation?
Keep in mind, as Harvick reminded everyone post-race at Charlotte, that only one objective really matters in a Chase that ultimately will be decided in a winner-take-all race in the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway between the last four Chase drivers left standing.
Harvick told reporters, per Jim Utter of the Charlotte Observer: "Sure, we want to win every week, but in the end, still, there's only one goal, and that's to put the trophy in the back of your truck at Homestead and drive it home."
Matt Kenseth
1 of 12
Kenseth deserves some points, especially at his age, for running down the younger Brad Keselowski and tackling him in between haulers in the Sprint Cup garage following the race at Charlotte.
Kenseth turned 42 in March. But he was upset enough after the 30-year-old Keselowski rammed into him on pit road post-race that he looked like, well, like he was at least 35 or something.
With good reason, Kenseth was none too pleased with Keselowski's post-race antics. Per Fox Sports' Tom Jensen:
"I had my HANS (device) off, my seatbelts off and everything and he clobbers me at like 50 (mile per hour). with the accidents we've had around here, the race is over, you come back to pit road, if he wants to come up and talk about it like a man, go do that. To wreck somebody on the race track and come down pit road with other cars and people standing around and my seatbelts off and drive in the side of me is inexcusable.
"
Kenseth was so fired up that you have to like his chances of it carrying over to Talladega, where he won in 2012. Plus he's ninth in the standings, only one point out of the eighth-place transfer spot currently held by Kasey Kahne. He's got a very good chance of at least leapfrogging Kahne to advance.
Verdict: Hold
Dale Earnhardt Jr.
2 of 12
We would like to sell you a Cinderella story and say Earnhardt Jr. will win at Talladega to pull this one from the fire and advance to the Eliminator 8 Round of the Chase.
After all, he's won five times in his career at 'Dega. And he's won three other times already this year, including in the riveting Daytona 500 to open the season.
But the fact is that it's been a decade since his last win at 'Dega, and Earnhardt's No. 88 Hendrick Motorsports team seemed to coast from mid-August on and then tried to turn it on again once the Chase started. That's always a dangerous way to do business, and it seems like it's biting the team now.
The latest wrench thrown into his championship plans wasn't a wrench at all—but rather a broken gear shifter. It ruined Junior's night at Charlotte, where he finished 20th after earlier telling the media, per Fox Sports' Jared Turner, that he thought he would win.
Now he's in 12th and so far out of eighth that he'll have to do exactly that at Talladega if he's going to stay alive in this Chase.
Verdict: Sell
Kyle Busch
3 of 12
Kyle Busch may be turning around his season at precisely the right time.
Just when it appeared his time with crew chief Dave Rogers might be coming to a bitter end, Busch and Rogers are clicking with a consistency not witnessed in the driver's six previous Chase appearances. It was enough to Joe Gibbs, owner of Joe Gibbs Racing, to tell FoxSports.com, as reported by Tom Jensen, that any possible crew chief changes are now on hold.
Maybe it's maturity. Maybe it's a little luck. Maybe it's that Toyota Racing Development is finally making good on a pledge to put its drivers in faster cars.
But probably it's a combination of all three.
Regardless, Busch's fifth-place finish in the Bank of America 500 at Charlotte marked his fifth consecutive top-10 finish in the Chase. Coupled with his third-place run at Kansas in the opening race of the Contender Round, Busch now sits second in points behind only Joey Logano and looks a sure bet to advance to the Eliminator Round unless total disaster strikes at Talladega.
Verdict: Buy
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Ryan Newman
4 of 12
Ryan Newman is fourth in the current Chase Contender standings?
Yep. As hard as that may be to believe, maybe Newman is understanding this new Chase elimination format better than most.The driver of the No. 31 Chevrolet for Richard Childress Racing hasn't won a race this season and has only two top-five finishes.
But he ran just well enough to advance out of the first round of the Chase and now has strung together three consecutive finishes of eighth or better, including a seventh at Charlotte.
That has put him in position of needing only to stay out of serious trouble at Talladega to advance. You figure his run has to end at some point unless he unexpectedly pulls a win out of his fire suit, but so far he's mastered doing just well enough to stay in the title hunt. And he won't need to go for the win this week.
Verdict: Hold
Jimmie Johnson
5 of 12
Defending Sprint Cup champion Jimmie Johnson is seeing his chances of making history this season slip away.
In past Chases, it seemed crew chief Chad Knaus always would make the right moves to get Johnson where he needed to be in the important races. But last Saturday night, Knaus appeared to make entirely the wrong move by calling for four tires on the final caution, while others either stayed out, took fuel only or slapped only two tires on.
The decision definitely played a role in Johnson finishing 17th and left him in 11th, 26 points out of the eighth-place cutoff for advancement into the next round.
And that means virtually the only way Johnson can keep his hopes of securing a record-tying seventh career championship—which would be most all time along with Richard Petty and the late Dale Earnhardt—is if he wins at Talladega.
For once, the chemistry between driver and crew chief on the No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports team doesn't seem where it needs to be to make that happen.
Verdict: Sell
Denny Hamlin
6 of 12
Denny Hamlin is returning to the site of his only victory this season at Talladega, where he won in the spring.
And while he's not comfortable at seventh in the current Chase Contender Round standings, at least he's on the right side of the cutoff line to make it to the next round. In fact, with a 16-point edge over Kasey Kahne in eighth, Hamlin actually is in pretty good position.
He finished ninth at Charlotte and thought the post-race antics of Brad Keselowski cost him an even better finish, telling reporters afterward, per Fox Sports' Tom Jensen: "He was just out of control."
Hamlin, however, is in control of his own destiny at Talladega, and his chances of advancing look solid.
Verdict: Buy
Kasey Kahne
7 of 12
Kasey Kahne's stock is worth holding onto at Talladega, but he'll be in a difficult fight to fend off the likes of Matt Kenseth and others over the course of the race.
Kahne currently holds the precious but precarious eighth-place spot in the Contender Round standings, but the crafty Kenseth is lurking only one point behind. Plus the trio of Brad Keselowski, Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr. will be coming hard to earn the win, as that's the only way any of them can move on—and that could knock someone out who otherwise would advance on points.
Keeping an eye on Kahne and those racing around him for that eighth spot should be an entertaining race within the race at 'Dega.
Verdict: Hold
Brad Keselowski
8 of 12
Brad Keselowski is so unpopular with his fellow drivers right now that it may not matter how well he runs at Talladega, where he likely will need to win to advance now despite owning five victories on the season.
That's because he caused all kinds of havoc after the Bank of America 500 last Saturday night at Charlotte. Of course, he blamed everyone but himself, explaining his post-race fracas with Matt Kenseth and Denny Hamlin this way, per Fox Sports' Tom Jensen:
"...I figured if we're gonna play car wars under yellow and after the race I'll join, too. Those guys can dish it out, but they can't take it. I gave it back to them and now they want to fight, so I don't know what's up with that.
"
What's up now is that Keselowski, despite being tied with Team Penske teammate Joey Logano for the series high for victories on the season, is mired in 10th place in the current Chase Contender standings. That's a whole lot of ground to make up at a place where someone who is still mad at you can wipe you out and make it look like an accident.
Verdict: Sell
Carl Edwards
9 of 12
How in the world is Carl Edwards still in this Chase? In fact, Edwards not only is still in it—but he could very well win it in his final season with Roush Fenway Racing and crew chief Jimmy Fennig. (Edwards already has announced he'll be driving a Toyota for Joe Gibbs Racing next season.)
OK, while that remains a long shot mainly because the No. 99 Ford he drives for RFR simply hasn't shown enough speed all season, Edwards enters the final race of the Contender Round a solid fifth in the standings, a comfortable 19 points in front of the cutoff to advance to the next round.
He led one lap at Charlotte, giving him the grand total of five laps led over the last 15 races. That doesn't seem like the kind of speed demanded of a Sprint Cup champion.
But by finishing fifth at Kansas and eighth at Charlotte while so many other Chasers around him were imploding, he showed precisely how you might not have to win races in the Chase to keep advancing and possibly come away with a championship.
Verdict: Hold
Jeff Gordon
10 of 12
While guys like Carl Edwards, Kasey Kahne and Ryan Newman are hanging around—and two of the three almost certainly will advance—they need to look to No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports team driver Jeff Gordon to see what a true championship contender really looks like.
Gordon won at Dover in the first round of the Chase and finished second behind race winner Kevin Harvick at Charlotte to solidify his chances of moving on past Talladega. That moved him up to sixth in the Contender Round standings but only two points behind Edwards in fifth and three behind the seemingly vulnerable Newman in fourth.
In other words, Gordon will still have to avoid major trouble at Talladega to advance. But he's in pretty good position, and then he should be a contender to win at the three Eliminator Round tracks—Martinsville, Texas and Phoenix. (He has a combined 11 career wins at those venues, with eight coming at Martinsville, two at Phoenix and one at Texas.)
A win at any of those tracks in the next round will get him to the winner-take-all season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Strong finishes at all three will do the trick too. Pencil him in now.
Verdict: Buy
Joey Logano
11 of 12
Logano matched his worst finish of the five races in the Chase in the Bank of America 500 at Charlotte.
The bad news for the other 11 Chasers? He finished fourth.
Logano's series of finishes in the five Chase races thus far has gone like this: fourth at Chicagoland, first at New Hampshire, fourth at Dover, first at Kansas, fourth at Charlotte. He's led laps only in the two races he won, but he's always lurking around the top five and makes certain he stays out of trouble to get the strong finishes his No. 22 Team Penske group deserves.
Like Kevin Harvick, the other Contender Round winner, Logano can take it easy at Talladega and probably will. But when it comes time to go at the end, what does he really have to lose by getting up front and mixing it up for the fun of it? He has the luxury of going for it if he wants or staying back if he doesn't.
Either way, you'll almost certainly see him in the final four at Homestead.
Verdict: Buy
Kevin Harvick
12 of 12
The fact that Kevin Harvick finally closed the deal and won at Charlotte after a string of mishaps and poor luck had cost him several chances at victories earlier this year bodes well for him the rest of this Chase.
Not only did it secure advancement into the Eliminator Round of the Chase for Harvick, but it also proved to the driver and his entire No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolet team that they have what it takes to win the title. No one could blame them for having some self-doubt after eight previous races this season in which Harvick led 63 or more laps but failed to win.
It put Harvick in the very enviable position of not having to worry about what happens at Talladega, where he said that he does not intend to risk much at the track known for producing chaos and dangerous wrecks.
"I don't know, I'm parking it and watching it," Harvick told the Charlotte Observer's Jim Utter. "It's going to be fun to watch. It's going to be crazy, offensive racing."
He just doesn't have to be a part of it. He might as well keep himself well rested for the Chase Eliminator Round that will begin the following week at Martinsville.
Verdict: Buy
Unless otherwise noted, all information was obtained firsthand by the writer.
Joe Menzer has written six books, including two about NASCAR, and now writes about it and other sports for Bleacher Report as well as covering NASCAR as a writer and editor at FoxSports.com. Follow him on Twitter, @OneMenz.
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