Previewing, Predicting Each of MLB's Crucial Pennant-Race Finales
Forget your fantasy football team, go find the best seat in the house and settle in for a Sunday full of Major League Baseball fun. Heading into the final day of the season, there's more than a little still to be decided.
For starters, MLB's final playoff berth—the second AL wild card—is up for grabs after the Oakland Athletics lost Saturday and the Seattle Mariners stayed alive by beating the Los Angeles Angels 2-1 in 11 innings very late Saturday night (or very early Sunday morning, depending on your time zone).
But that's not all! Not even close.
Both Central division titles also are on the line, as the Detroit Tigers and St. Louis Cardinals try to hold off the Kansas City Royals and Pittsburgh Pirates, respectively.
How is Sunday's nonstop action going to shake out, what with a whopping six games carrying postseason implications? Will there be a Game 163...or two...or three?
Let's preview and predict, with games listed in order of start time.
Minnesota Twins (70-91) at Detroit Tigers (89-72)
1 of 7
Start Time: 1:08 p.m. ET
Projected Starting Pitchers: RHP Kyle Gibson (Minnesota Twins) versus LHP David Price (Detroit Tigers)
What's at Stake
If the Tigers win, they get the AL Central crown for a fourth straight year and take on the Baltimore Orioles in the ALDS; if they lose and the Royals win, there will be a Game 163 in Detroit on Monday.
This is why the Tigers traded for Price at the deadline, right?
The left-hander hasn't been all that steady since coming over (3.97 ERA), and he was knocked around a bit by the Twins (5.2 IP, 5 ER) on Sept. 17. Then again, he's pitched in big games before, winning Game 163 for the Tampa Bay Rays almost exactly a year ago on Sept. 30, 2013.
Gibson's last outing was his first quality start since Aug. 13, and even that came against the team with the worst record in baseball, the Arizona Diamondbacks. He's posted a 6.86 ERA against Detroit in four starts so far and was beaten up in two of them.
Prediction: Tigers win 6-3 to clinch the AL Central
Pittsburgh Pirates (88-73) at Cincinnati Reds (75-86)
2 of 7
Start Time: 1:10 p.m. ET
Projected Starting Pitchers: RHP Gerrit Cole (Pittsburgh Pirates) versus RHP Johnny Cueto (Cincinnati Reds)
What's at Stake
If the Pirates win, they still need the Cardinals to lose to force Game 163 on Monday in St. Louis; if they lose, it's the Wild Card Game against the San Francisco Giants on Wednesday in Pittsburgh.
This one will be tough for Pittsburgh, and Tom Singer of MLB.com explains why:
"Johnny Cueto has all the incentives imaginable to want to derail the Pirates. He will try to become the Reds' first 20-game winner since lefty Danny Jackson in 1988 (and the first right-hander in 49 years). Cueto will try to add to a 17-4 lifetime record against the Bucs.
And, oh, there is the matter of the "Cue-to! Cue-to!" Wild Card Game a year ago at PNC Park. The fans' chants at one point prompted Cueto to drop the ball.
With a chance to spoil the Pirates' plans, Cueto will do his utmost to not drop the ball again. [Pirates manager Clint] Hurdle will now have to decide whether to risk his own top gun to find out.
"
As of early Sunday morning, Cole still was listed as the probable, but Hurdle may save him for either Wednesday's Wild Card Game (if the Pirates lose Sunday) or Monday's Game 163 against St. Louis (if the Pirates win and Cardinals lose Sunday).
Ultimately, that might not matter, considering that Cueto is 4-0 with a 1.89 ERA in five starts against Pittsburgh.
Prediction: Reds win 4-2, preventing the Pirates from potentially tying for the NL Central lead
Kansas City Royals (88-73) at Chicago White Sox (73-88)
3 of 7
Start Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
Projected Starting Pitchers: RHP Yordano Ventura (Kansas City Royals) versus RHP Chris Bassitt (Chicago White Sox)
What's at Stake
If the Royals win and the Tigers lose, they'll play Game 163 Tuesday in Detroit; but if the Royals lose, they'll host the Wild Card Game against either the Athletics or Mariners.
Ventura, 23, is a rookie, but he's a rookie who hasn't surrendered a long ball since July 31—nine starts ago—and has hurled 11 consecutive quality starts.
As for Bassitt, he has a chance to play spoiler in the chase for the AL Central crown for the second straight start after he threw 7.2 shutout frames against the Tigers last time out.
The start prior to that one, though, the rookie got tuned up by none other than the Royals, who managed three runs on six hits and four walks in 3.2 innings.
Prediction: Royals win 4-3 but stay in the top AL wild-card spot because the Tigers win to take the Central
Oakland Athletics (87-74) at Texas Rangers (67-94)
4 of 7
Start Time: 3:05 p.m. ET
Projected Starting Pitchers: RHP Sonny Gray (Oakland Athletics) versus RHP Nick Martinez (Texas Rangers)
What's at Stake
Should the A's win, they move onto the Wild Card Game against either the Tigers or Royals; however, an Oakland loss could put them in position to have to play the Mariners in a Game 163 to determine who gets the final wild-card spot.
What's on the line here? Only the very last playoff position.
This is yet another pitching matchup that greatly favors one side, as Gray struck out a career-high 12 against the Angels last time out and has handled the Rangers to the tune of a 2.60 ERA in five games in 2014. Oh, and he's 2-0 with an 0.57 ERA in two starts (15.2 IP) in Texas.
Gray also broke out down the stretch and in the postseason last year as a rookie, giving up just three runs in 13 October innings over two turns in the ALDS against the Tigers. That's quite the big-game experience for a second-year starter.
Martinez has thrown well of late, allowing just seven earned runs in his past five starts. That has brought his ERA for the year down to 4.61 and his WHIP to 1.49.
It's also possible the Rangers could send Derek Holland to the mound instead, according to Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. He was skipped Saturday due to a migraine, per Gerry Fraley of The Dallas Morning News.
Prediction: Athletics win 3-1, clinching the final playoff spot still up for grabs
Los Angeles Angels (98-63) at Seattle Mariners (86-75)
5 of 7
Start Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
Projected Starting Pitchers: RHP Cory Rasmus (Los Angeles Angels) versus RHP Felix Hernandez (Seattle Mariners)
What's at Stake
If the Mariners win, they still need the Athletics to lose and fall back into a Game 163 for the wild card; if Seattle loses, the season is over.
Having sewn up home field throughout October, the Angels are playing for nothing. The Mariners and King Felix? They're playing for everything.
After putting up his worst start of an otherwise fantastic 2014 in getting pummeled by the Toronto Blue Jays for a season-high eight runs in a season-low 4.2 innings, Hernandez may or may not have his second Cy Young on the line Sunday.
That said outing came with the Mariners' postseason hopes on the line, too, isn't exactly encouraging.
Still, Hernandez is pitching for his first-ever shot at October, and he has an 0.94 ERA in four starts against the Angels this year. He has to win, right? Especially when L.A. is once again using reliever-turned-semi-starter Rasmus.
Prediction: Mariners win 5-2 but remain on the outside looking in when the Athletics win
St. Louis Cardinals (89-72) at Arizona Diamondbacks (64-97)
6 of 7
Start Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
Projected Starting Pitchers: RHP Adam Wainwright (St. Louis Cardinals) versus RHP Josh Collmenter (Arizona Diamondbacks)
What's at Stake
If the Cardinals win, they lock up the NL Central for the second straight season and face the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS, while a Cardinals loss and Pirates win would force a Game 163 in St. Louis to decide who gets a playoff series and who faces the do-or-die Wild Card Game.
The Cardinals feel like they're going to win every time Wainwright is on the mound—and they should.
Their ace hasn't allowed a run in his past 21 innings. As if that weren't enough, Waino's best outing of the year came in his only start against the Diamondbacks on May 20 when he twirled a one-hit complete-game shutout.
Given Wainwright's hot streak and big-game experience, all St. Louis has to do is get a few off Collmenter and let its stud do the rest.
Prediction: Cardinals win 8-3 to capture the NL Central
Wrapping Up
7 of 7
If everything shakes out just as described—it won't—that means the postseason matchups will look like so:
American League
Wild Card: Athletics at Royals
ALDS: Athletics/Royals (wild-card winner) at Angels (No. 1 seed)
ALDS: Tigers (No. 3 seed) at Orioles (No. 2 seed)
National League
Wild Card: Giants at Pirates
NLDS: Giants/Pirates (wild-card winner) at Nationals (No. 1 seed)
NLDS: Cardinals (No. 3 seed) at Dodgers (No. 2 seed)
The preceding predictions actually project there won't be any Game 163s Monday, based largely on how all of Sunday's pitching probables are aligned. But given the nature of this sport and how crazy this final week has been, that scenario—at least one Game 163—would seem likely.
Plus, it would be a heck of a lot more fun to have some bonus baseball. So these may be the picks based on the matchups and the numbers, but the rooting interest is for at least one extra game. If not more.
Baseball is going to take up quite a bit of your Sunday, so that seat better be comfy—you're bound to be on the edge of it.
Statistics are accurate through Sept. 27 and are courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted.
To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11
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