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Michigan State Spartans vs. Oregon Ducks Betting Odds: Analysis and Prediction

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Michigan State Spartans vs. Oregon Ducks Betting Odds: Analysis and Prediction
Ryan Kang/Associated Press

Despite dealing with some ridiculous point spreads in recent seasons, the Oregon Ducks have been a moneymaker, going 15-7 against the spread over their last 22 games.

But that trend will get tested this week when the Ducks host the defending Rose Bowl champion Michigan State Spartans on Saturday night in Eugene. Might this be a preview of a College Football Playoff game to come?

Might this be yet another ATS win for the Spartans when they get points from the oddsmaker?

 

Spartans-Ducks Point Spread: The Ducks opened as 11-point favorites, but the number was approaching 14 points as of Thursday, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. The total was 58 earlier in the week. (Line updates and matchup report)

 

Odds Shark computer prediction: 40-28 Ducks

 

Why the Michigan State Spartans can cover the spread

The Spartans are 5-3 straight-up and 7-0-1 ATS the last eight times they've been lined as dogs. Underestimating Michigan State has been very bad for a college football fan's wallet.

They opened 2014 with a 45-7 victory over FCS program Jacksonville State, covering as 34-point chalk. Michigan State led 38-0 at halftime, outgained the Gamecocks 565-244, forced three turnovers and held the ball for 38 minutes.

Sparty returns 12 starters this season, including seven on offense, most notably quarterback Connor Cook and 1,400-yard rusher Jeremy Langford. MSU is on a pretty good road run, going 11-2 SU and 11-1-1 ATS away from East Lansing since 2011.

 

Why the Oregon Ducks can cover the spread

The Ducks opened this season with a 62-13 victory over FCS program South Dakota, just missing a cover as 52-point favorites. Oregon led 35-6 shortly before halftime and scored the last 27 points of the game.

The Ducks have 13 starters back from last season, including eight on offense, led by quarterback and Heisman Trophy candidate Marcus Mariota, 1,000-yard rusher Byron Marshall and four along the offensive line.

Also, over the last two seasons, Oregon has been favored by two touchdowns or less six times, and they've gone 5-1 both SU and ATS in those games.

 

Smart Pick

Oregon looks like it's up to its usual tricks, which will make for a tough matchup for the Spartans, who are not used to dealing with an offensive operation like the Ducks.

And Michigan State, while still formidable, has to replace three starters along the offensive line as well as both defensive tackles from last season. So while a double-digit spread might scare some away, the smart money for this one is on Oregon, minus the points.

 

Trends:

  • Michigan State is 8-0-1 ATS the last nine times as an underdog.
  • Michigan State is 11-2 SU and 11-1-1 ATS record away from home since 2011.
  • Oregon is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 games.

 

Note: All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury updates and line move updates, and get the free odds tracker app.

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