Talladega Fantasy Thoughts While Waiting for the Big One

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Jimmy Johnson says that Talladega Super Speedway is the perfect race track for NASCAR’s new car. JJ claims that the new pavement and the wide open spaces of Talladega will make for exciting four-wide racing, with more drivers taking chances in the relatively early championship season. The fall race - the first CoT restrictor plate experiment - was notably boring. Jimmy blamed that on a tight, late season, Chase for the Cup which forced drivers to be protective of their point standings and eschew risking involvement in Talladega’s famous “big one” wreck.

Johnson went on to say that the #48 team’s win at Phoenix International Raceway in the Cup Series’ most recent race was a confidence booster but maybe as important was the team’s second place finish the week before at Texas Motor Speedway. Success on the intermediate Super Speedways has lagged behind Hendrick Motorsports’ prowess on short tracks, road courses and plate tracks.

All of that adds up to a confident defending Cup Series Champion. But Johnson doesn’t have the best NASCAR Loop stats at Talladega. He is in fact tied for sixth best Driver Rating with Denny Hamlin. Neither driver leads any of the significant Loop stat categories. Johnson has led only 38 laps in the last six races at the Alabama track while Hamlin had 90 in only four races. Johnson’s results are more impressive with one win, four top fives and five top tens. Hamlin has one top five finish.

The Once and Future King of Talladega

The current king of Talladega is Johnson’s teammate Jeff Gordon. His top Driver rating of 98.5 is supported by Loop leading Ave. Mid Race Position of 8.3 and significantly, 300 laps led - 26.3% of all Loop laps - by far the most of any driver. Add in six career wins, 13 top fives and 16 top tens. Gordon would be the easy pick this week.

Kurt Busch has the second best Driver Rating at 95.0 and has the best Ave Finish and Position - 5.8 and 11.3. His 890 laps in the top 15 - 78.1% - and 1794 Quality Passes are series best as well. Busch has six top fives and 11 top tens at Talladega but has never won a restrictor plate race. The Blue Deuce has had a poor 2008 so far. There hasn’t been much evidence to make me think this will be the turn-a-round week.

Tony Stewart is third in Driver Rating at 93.1. Smoke has eight top fives, 11 top tens and zero ‘Dega wins. It’s hard to believe he can be kept out of victory lane much longer - this season or at this track.

The other drivers in the Talladega top five are Jamie McMurray and Brian Vickers. There’s nothing fluky about it either as they both have solid stats. First, they’ve both won restrictor plate races - McMurray at Daytona last July and Vickers at Talladega in 2006. Their Loop Driver Ratings are 92.6 and 91.5. Jamie has three top fives and four top tens while Vickers owns two top fives and three top tens at TSS.

Dale Earnhardt Jr is always a tempting choice at a plate race. He is a five time winner with seven top fives and nine top tens to temper his 11th best Driver Rating of 81.2. Junior was the top finishing Hendrick Motorsport driver at Daytona and he has been running up front all 2008 long. It would be hard to pick a more likely place for Jr to break his winless streak than at Talladega.

Who else? Points leader Jeff Burton is right behind Earnhardt with the 12th best DR of 79.3. Two top fives and ten top tens are pretty stout, but five DNF’s indicate plenty of involvement in Dega’s big ones.

Kevin Harvick has been a rock so far in 2008. His Driver Rating is 13th at 76.3 for Talladega and he has three top fives and seven top tens. Harvick is winless at Talladega - as are all of the other top twelve in Cup Series points besides Johnson and Jr. But Harvick won at Daytona and knows how to stay out of trouble with no DNF’s in 14 Talladega races.

This one looks like a Hendrick Motorsports win to me. I’m thinking Junior gets his win. Dark horse pick - McMurray.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.