NHL Playoffs: First Round Analysis, Second Round Predictions

The first round is over and I still am still growing my playoff beard.  That is a good thing.

I was right on my predictions for three of the four teams in each conference.  That is a good thing, too.

Better yet, one of the series I was wrong about was the hated (and thuggish) Ducks.  One I was right about was the hated and less-thuggish Flames, but if you have read my analyses during the series, you do not need to hear more. 

But one I was wrong about was the only team to have had three suspended players, beating the best Cinderella story of the year featuring the best player during the regular season.  Bad, very bad!

We learned several things in the first round:

1. Detroit has problems in net.  Hasek looks like his age has finally caught up to him (struggling with injuries all year and performance in the Nashville series), and Osgood being between the pipes has to make Detroit fans a little nervous given his history.
2. San Jose lacks focus at times, but has shown resiliency they have not had in previous years.
3. Dallas' power play is not to be trifled with (especially if Zubov comes back as it is looking like he will), and they will beat undisciplined teams.
4. Jose Theodore seems to have recaptured his former greatness, but which incarnation will show up in the second round.
5. Based on their difficulty in eliminating the 15th best team in the league, it is clear that Montreal's talent is not at the level of Pittsburgh and New York.
6. The Penguins can really beat up on a team that is not playing well.
7. The Rangers finally as good as they were predicted to be before the regular season.  I would add that Sean Avery is a knucklehead, but we learned that years ago.
8. The Flyers' Daniel Briere is finally as good as he was predicted to be before the regular season, and this is a gritty, dangerous team.

So how does all of this affect my predictions for the second round?

I believe the Red Wings will have to go back to Hasek at some point because Osgood will let in that soft goal and play that bad game.  I am not sure it will come in this round, however, and I am not sure the post-lockout inconsistent Theodore can be counted on any more than Osgood...Wings in seven.

The Sharks are the most skilled team outside of (and possibly including) Detroit.  They have gotten plenty of secondary scoring, and that is what wins in the playoffs.  The Stars look like the Richards trade may finally be paying dividends and their best defenseman may finally be getting healthy.  Both teams have exorcised playoff demons (Dallas getting past the first round, San Jose overcoming adversity), and they split their season series by winning three on the road.  Tough call, but Nabokov has more experience and that is often key in the playoffs...Sharks in seven.

The Canadiens are the league's biggest over-achievers, but I do not think they have the skill to go deep.  Philadelphia has good balance and is getting good goaltending from Martin Biron, but they are going to miss the reliable veteran presence of Mike Knuble.  Both cities are tough places to play on the road.  Carey Price has been impressive, and with that home crowd behind him four times...Habs in seven.

Okay, so I have picked the home team in seven games for all three series.  I have a saying: "once is a fluke, twice is a coincidence, three times is a pattern."  The Penguins have incredible skill and depth, home ice, and arguably the most skilled player in hockey.  They are stronger on the blue line and their goaltender is statistically the best in the post-season so far.

So why am I picking the Rangers in six?  Because I picked them to win it all?  No, because there is no goaltender left in the playoffs I would take over Lundqvist--that's right, not even Nabokov, who played enough during the regular season that he could wear down.  

While New York might not be quite as strong on the blue line overall, they are defensively, and their forwards are better in that aspect of the game.  Having over a week off might help teams in the long run, but for the first game it is not good, and Pittsburgh had two more days off than New York.  That will allow that game and put the Pens on their heels; not having been through a tough playoff series, they will be unable to overcome that plus the skill, grit, and experience of the Rangers.