Kansas City Chiefs vs. Indianapolis Colts: Betting Odds AFC Wild Card Prediction

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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Indianapolis Colts: Betting Odds AFC Wild Card Prediction
Jamie Squire/Getty Images

The Indianapolis Colts are in the playoffs for the second straight season, hosting a Wild Card Game at Lucas Oil Stadium where they're 11-3 against the spread over their last 14 home games.

The Kansas City Chiefs, one season after going 2-14, are back in the playoffs, thanks in large part to their work on the road where they went 6-2 straight up and 7-1 ATS this season.

The Colts and Chiefs kick off the 2013-14 NFL playoffs with an AFC Wild Card Game Saturday afternoon in Indianapolis.

 

Point spread: Colts opened as one-point favorites; the total was 47. (Line updates and matchup report)

 

Odds Shark computer prediction: 28.4-24.3 Chiefs

 

Why the Chiefs can cover the AFC Wild Card spread

Kansas City showed some nice depth Sunday when, with most of its starters watching from the sidelines, it just about beat a desperate San Diego Chargers team. Kansas City only ranks 19th in the league in total offense but 10th in rushing, averaging 129 yards per game on the ground.

And while the Chiefs only ranked 24th in total defense, they've allowed just 19 points per game, fourth-best in the league. KC also made a good living in the turnover department, ranking second with a plus-18 give-take margin.

Kansas City QB Alex Smith is 30-9-1 SU in his last 40 NFL starts. The computer is picking the upset and for KC to end its seven-game playoff losing streak.

 

Why the Colts can cover the AFC Wild Card spread

Indy is 22-10 SU and 21-11 ATS in two seasons with Andrew Luck at quarterback and 2-for-2 in making the playoffs. The Colts just beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead two weeks ago, spotting KC the first seven points. They then rolled to a 23-7 victory, holding the ball for 38 minutes and forcing four Chiefs turnovers.

By the numbers, Indy doesn't overwhelm, ranking 15th in total offense and 20th in total defense this season. But it also ranks third in the league with a plus-13 turnover margin and held four of its last five opponents to 14 points or less.

The Colts are 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS over the years against Kansas City, according to the NFL Wild Card Weekend Betting Trends report at Odds Shark.

 

Smart pick

The Odds Shark NFL computer is predicting an outright Kansas City victory in a game that plays OVER its total. The Chiefs started 9-0 this season, then went 2-5 the rest of the way, but some of that late fade came about by circumstance.

Two of those losses came against Denver, and two more came as KC had little or nothing to play for, including the loss to Indy two weeks ago. The Chiefs own advantages in both the running game and run defense.

Teams that out-grounded their opponents covered the spread 62 percent of the time this season. For what's liable to be a very close game, take the points with Kansas City.

 

Trends

  • Chiefs are 0-7 SU and ATS in the playoffs since 1990 (three losses to Indy).
  • Chiefs are 2-12 SU, 3-11 ATS versus the Colts since 1990.
  • Five of past six meetings played UNDER the total.
  • Colts are 11-3 ATS past 14 home games.
  • Colts are 10-3 favoring the UNDER in playoffs since 2005.

 

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.

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