Kiko Martinez vs. Jeffrey Mathebula: Preview and Prediction for Title Fight

Kiko Martinez vs. Jeffrey Mathebula will take place on Saturday night in Spain, and the IBF Super Bantamweight Championship will be on the line.

Martinez captured that title with a stunning stoppage victory over the previously unbeaten Jhonatan Romero in August in Atlantic City. His pressure and power were simply too much for the former champion, and he'll be making the first defense of his newly won crown.

Mathebula is a former super bantamweight world champion in his own right. He captured the title early in 2012 before losing it to Nonito Donaire later in the year. The fight was noncompetitive, but he rebounded well with a victory over former champion—and Martinez conqueror—Takalani Ndlovu earlier this year.

All the information you need for this big world title fight is contained within. This is your complete preview and prediction for Martinez vs. Mathebula.

Tale of the Tape

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Mathebula was outclassed by Donaire.

The first things that jump off the page are the massive advantages Jeffrey Mathebula possesses in both reach and height. He's freakishly tall for a fighter in the lower weight divisions, and that could provide him with a big advantage come fight night.

Kiko Martinez is the younger of the two, by a substantial seven years, but despite that, both guys have the exact same number of fights.

Martinez is the more powerful puncher, and he will have the advantage of fighting at home.

Record	Kiko Martinez (C) 29-4, 21 KO	Jeffrey Mathebula 27-4-2, 14 KO
Age	27	34
Height	5'5"	5'11"
Weight	121.5 (Last Fight)	122 (Last Fight)
Reach	66"	72"
Stance	Orthodox	Orthodox
Hometown	Alicante, Comunidad Valenciana, Spain	Malamulele, Limpopo, South Africa
Rounds Boxed	182	222
Last Fight	TKO 6 Jhonatan Romero (8/17/13)	UD 12 Takalani Ndlovu (3/23/13)

Main Storylines

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Martinez entered as a big underdog before upsetting Romero.

Kiko Martinez was on the verge of being relegated to journeyman status when he got his first world championship opportunity against Jhonatan Romero in August on the undercard of Geale vs. Barker. He cashed it in, using an intense pressure attack to overwhelm and ultimately stop his foe. 

It was Martinez's first trip to the United States for a bout, and it came only six months after he was stopped in an exciting fight by talented British prospect Carl Frampton. 

Martinez will make the first defense of his title in his native Spain, and a win here would likely set up a rematch with Frampton, who is currently rated No. 2 by the IBF but should ascend to the mandatory spot after this bout. 

Jeffrey Mathebula knows a little something about being the IBF super bantamweight champion—he briefly held the belt in 2012—and will be looking to become a two-time world champion.

His first reign lasted just a little less than four months, and Mathebula was badly outclassed in losing the strap to Nonito Donaire. Of course, at that time, Donaire was rapidly rising toward the top of the sport, but the fight really wasn't close.

Mathebula is a veteran contender who has spent most of his career in his native South Africa. At 34 years old, he's quite possibly looking at his last opportunity.

Strengths

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Mathebula is tall, rangy and has an excellent jab.

Kiko Martinez is a swarming pressure fighter who likes to overwhelm his foes with aggression. He doesn't have tremendous one-punch power, but he's capable of wearing down an opponent through a combination of physical and mental pressure. 

He prefers the fight at close quarters where he can impose his will on the opponent. 

Martinez has a very high energy level, and he's shown the ability to take a good shot. 

Jeffrey Mathebula is freakishly big for a guy fighting at 122 pounds. At just under six feet tall and with a 72-inch reach, he has the physical build of someone fighting in the much higher weight classes. 

He knows how to use his physical advantages—which are often substantial against other super bantamweights—to frustrate his opponents and force them to fight his type of fight.

Mathebula has an excellent jab, which could benefit him greatly—should he get it working—in trying to stymie Martinez's offensive aggression.

Weaknesses

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Martinez slugs, but he doesn't have a ton of boxing ability.

Kiko Martinez likes to slug it out and turn his fights into brawls. That favors his style—and he did a good job against a longer opponent in Jhonatan Romero in his last fight—but he doesn't have a ton of boxing ability. 

His style is really bullish. He doesn't jab much—potentially a problem against a big jabber in this fight—and just tries to force his way inside with head movement and hard-charging rushes. 

If he's unable to get on the inside, he could find himself in serious trouble in this fight.

Jeffrey Mathebula isn't an overly powerful puncher. At some point in the fight, he's going to need to land something with some force in order to keep Martinez off of him, and we just don't know if he has that punch in his arsenal.

This will be just his second fight outside his native South Africa, and he'll be on hostile turf against a home fighter. 

None of that should be read to mean that he can't win, but that it will be a little more difficult given the locale and the crowd being against him.

Kiko Martinez Will Win If...

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Martinez needs to swarm his opponent and get inside his jab.

Kiko Martinez has to figure that step one is getting inside of Jeffrey Mathebula's long jab. If he cannot do that, he's probably going to be in for a very long night.

Martinez is a swarming fighter. He bulls into his opponent's chest, smothers him and then uncorks hooks to the head and body that can wear down most anyone. 

If Mathebula isn't able to use the jab effectively, or if he can't land anything to give Martinez second thoughts about being aggressive, Martinez could find himself in a similar situation to his last fight.

In that bout, he captured the IBF Super Bantamweight Championship from Jhonatan Romero—who like Mathebula is taller and longer—by bullying him, getting on the inside and working him relentlessly when there. 

If he's able to do that again, he can win this fight.

Jeffrey Mathebula Will Win If...

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Mathebula needs to box effectively.

They say that the best way to blunt an overly aggressive fighter is with a good jab. If you're able to keep him off balance and pepper him on the way in, you can control him and win the fight.

That's exactly the style Jeffrey Mathebula will need to employ if he wants to leave Spain as a two-time world champion. 

If he's able to pump his jab with consistency—both to keep Kiko Martinez on the outside and control his aggression—and can land a few punches to keep him honest, he could definitely win this fight.

And the Winner Will Be...

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Mathebula will score a minor upset and leave Spain with the belt.

This pick comes from the gut and has a lot to do with the fact that Kiko Martinez hasn't totally sold me on his ability to be a true world-class fighter.  

Sure, he looked very impressive in wearing down and stopping Jhonatan Romero earlier this year, but a lot of that might have had to do with the former champion fighting all the wrong fights and being a tad overrated himself.

Jeffrey Mathebula is an excellent boxer. He was overwhelmed by Nonito Donaire, but that was during a stretch when the Filipino was steaming toward Fighter of the Year honors. 

The South African is very tough, and he works hard in the ring. He's not going to fall into the same trap that befell Romero.

He'll box effectively, sticking his jab in Martinez's face all night long and keeping him at bay. He has the speed and precision to use the champion's aggression against him, and he'll score a minor upset to lift his second world title.

Prediction: Mathebula UD 12 Martinez (115-113)