Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistDecember 11, 2013

HOUSTON, TX - NOVEMBER 03: Andrew Luck #12 of the Indianapolis Colts drops back as J.J. Watt #99 of the Houston Texans applies pressure in the fourth quarter at Reliant Stadium on November 3, 2013 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)
Bob Levey/Getty Images

While the Houston Texans have never won on the road against the Indianapolis Colts (0-11 straight up), five of the past six meetings between these AFC South rivals have played UNDER the posted total.

 

Point spread: Colts opened as six-point favorites; the total was 45.5. (Line updates and matchup report.)

 

Odds Shark computer prediction: 21.6-14.7 Colts

 

Why the Texans can cover the spread

Houston may be in the right spot. The Colts have clinched a playoff spot and are in one heck of a sandwich after losing at Cincinnati last week, hosting the rival Texans this week and then playing at Kansas City next week.

There may not be a lot of motivation, which leaves room for the Texans to keep this one close.

 

Why the Colts can cover the spread

Indianapolis can't afford to head into Kansas City next weekend having lost two straight, especially against a team like the Texans. The Colts have alternated wins and losses since Nov. 3, when they went into Houston and won 27-24. If the pattern holds true, they're due for a win this week, and they're easily six points better than Houston.

The spread is manageable and the Colts have never lost at home to Houston.

 

Smart Pick

Lay the points with Indianapolis in this one, as there is too much at stake for the Colts to run the risk of playing a close game with what can still be a dangerous Houston team that has just two wins on the year.

The home team has won six straight meetings, while the straight-up winner in this series has covered eight in a row.

 

Trends:

  • Houston is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games at Indianapolis
  • Indianapolis is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games at home
  • Five of past six meetings played UNDER the total
  • Houston has never won at Indy (0-11 SU)

 

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.

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