Half of the top 10 teams in last week's BCS standings were idle this week, and other than Texas Tech losing in a mild upset, it was a weekend of mostly ho-hum affairs.
Thank you, Northwestern, for making complete hash out of your last defensive stand so we could have our YouTube and GIF fix for the day, though.
Which of the top four teams is most likely to lose?
Florida State won Saturday's most high-profile showdown, a 41-14 victory over No. 7 Miami. But the Seminoles were favored by three touchdowns, so even an impressive win over their in-state rival might not be enough for them to get into the all-important top two spots in the next BCS standings.
The 'Noles will close the gap on Oregon and make it very close for the No. 2 spot, thanks to the boost they'll get from the computers. Florida State probably will check in at No. 1 in five of the six BCS computers, with Richard Billingsley as the exception. The 'Noles will need to sway about a dozen voters or so in the two polls to pull ahead of the Ducks for the week.
But even if they move into No. 2 in the next standings, they'll stay there for exactly one week if both Oregon and Alabama win their upcoming showdowns in Week 11. Should the Tide and Ducks go on to beat LSU and Stanford, respectively, and run the table after that, FSU will have reached its high-water mark, as it won't have another game that will provide much boost the rest of the season—including the ACC Championship Game.
So with the exception of Miami, the projected BCS standings will look very similar to last week's:
|4||Ohio State||9-0||Big Ten||4|
|15||Oklahoma State||7-1||Big 12||18|
|20||Michigan State||8-1||Big Ten||22|
|22||Texas Tech||7-2||Big 12||15|
A few quick observations on the various BCS title game and bowl game contenders:
* Ohio State blanked Purdue, 56-0, and has outscored its last two opponents, 119-14. And that will...do absolutely nothing for the Buckeyes' BCS title game hopes. In fact, OSU's title aspirations suffered another blow this week as Michigan was manhandled by Michigan State, robbing the Bucks of a potential ranked opponent at the end of the season. OSU is squarely locked into the fourth spot, with no hopes of moving up unless any of the top three teams lose.
* Stanford will remain the top one-loss team and for now the best positioned among teams with losses to sneak into the BCS title game. But even if the Cardinal upset Oregon on Thursday, they will not leapfrog any of the other three unbeaten teams currently ahead of them, not even Ohio State.
* Fresno State won more comfortably this week and should maintain its slim edge over Northern Illinois for a BCS bowl berth awarded to a non-AQ team. If both teams remain undefeated, this race will be extremely close and come down to the final weekend of the season as they play in their respective conference championship games.
* Notre Dame just barely held off a gritty Navy team at home and kept its BCS bowl quest alive. The Irish cannot afford another loss the rest of the season and still have tough matchups with Stanford and BYU remaining.
|BCS Championship||Alabama vs. Oregon|
|Rose Bowl||Stanford vs. Ohio State|
|Orange Bowl||Florida State vs. Central Florida|
|Sugar Bowl||Texas A&M vs. Clemson|
|Fiesta Bowl||Baylor vs. Fresno State|
Projected as at end of season
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