Second-Order Hitting UVI: A Few Facts and Examples

As a followup to my earlier piece introducing my new stat, I thought I'd put it in some context. I'll split my analyses up some. In this piece, we will examine second-order UVI for hitters to get a better feel for what it offers.

As I explained in my earlier article, second-order hitting UVIs account for a player's home park along with his performance. Since all the examples I'm about to use are from the major leagues (for familiarity's sake) there's no need to go into third-order UVI here, since all that does is account for level.

How high can it go? 

Well, UVI is on the same scale as slugging percentage, so if a player hits a homer every plate appearance, their UVI will be 4.000.

For a slightly more realistic idea of UVI's ceiling, a better idea is Barry Bonds' incredible 2001. In that year, Bonds had a second-order UVI of .897, which goes along with the idea that UVI tends to run slightly higher than slugging percentage. Since it is almost inconceivable to imagine a better season than Bonds' 2001, it is safe to assume that a .900 UVI is about as good as it gets.

For those of you who argue that Bonds' season should be thrown out, fine. For another idea of a ceiling, let's look at A-Rod's 2007 for an example of a great season. Rodriguez had a .687 second-order UVI last year, so his '07 was only 7/9 as good as Bonds' '01. Wow.

Some others to chew on:

Jimmy Rollins' '07: .572

Matt Holliday's '07: .573

Ooooh...wow...I expected Holliday to win this by a mile, but Coors drives his first-order advantage from .17 to .01. Yes, Holliday is the better hitter, but Rollins' baserunning helps not only with steals, but with grounding into fewer double plays. Given that Rollins plays a tougher defensive position than Holliday, maybe he deserved that MVP award after all...

Ryan Braun's '07: .626

For someone to put up a UVI like that with Braun's kind of walk rate means he's one hell of a hitter. I know, I know, you didn't need me to tell you that, but look at how he dwarfs Holliday and Rollins. Did he deserve the MVP? Given his horrific defense, it's tough to really say yes, but Braun sure hit the heck out of the ball. 

Ryan Howard's '06: .665

I put this up simply because it's got the highest HR total of any season since the Steroid Era. It also serves as an interesting study, though, because Howard walks a lot, strikes out even more, and is a big handicap on the bases. Apparently it all works out for him pretty well. 

Hanley Ramirez's '07: .631

Ramirez's appearance out of relative nowhere had me skeptical, but you can see that his UVI blows Rollins' and Holliday's out of the water. Yes, he's a well-below-average SS, but he's better there than Derek Jeter, and he hits better as well. That will be great for whoever Florida eventually trades him to. How in hell have they won two World Series over there? 

How low can you go? 

The worst a hitter can possibly do would be to ground into a double play every time, which would yield a UVI of -1.000. When doing 3rd-order UVI translations from short-season leagues, the translations can often go into the red due to ridiculous K rates.

You're currently logged into Facebook

Do you want to share your Bleacher Report activity on Facebook?