The Stat That Will Revolutionize Baseball: Introducing UVI

It was August of 2006.

I was in Vermont, visiting my uncle. He and my cousin were having a fight over something, so I was told to just sit in my room and wait it out. There wasn't a TV or computer or really much around me that could keep me occupied.

There was, however, a stack of paper over in one corner.

Being an avid fan of Baseball Prospectus and an amateur post-Moneyball stathead, I had recently been pondering how no one stat really gets to the heart of how good a player is.

Really, name any stat, and I can name plenty of things that it leaves out in its ultimate conclusion. 

So with nothing better to do, I sat down in front of this stack of paper with a pen and said to myself "Let's change the world."

(I did seriously say that, I'm not saying it for some dramatic effect.)

It's been nearly two years since that day where I initially started playing with the numbers, and I finally think I've gotten somewhere.

And without further ado, ladies and gentlemen, I give you Ultimate Value Index.

Ultimate Value Index, or UVI, as I'll refer to it from here on out, is a measure of a player's "ultimate value." This might sound like a nebulous concept, but it isn't.

What UVI essentially measures is this: Without outside help, how many bases does a hitter get every plate apperance? How many does a pitcher allow?

Hitters

The formulas for UVI work on different variables, so we'll examine hitting first. UVI for hitters works a lot like slugging percentage, but there are a few differences.

1.) Slugging percentage is based on at-bats; UVI is based on plate appearances.

One of the reasons why OPS is a bad stat that skews toward sluggers is that OBP and SLG are based differently; one on ABs and the other on PAs.

2.) UVI includes baserunning.

That's right, Juan Pierre fans; this gives your boy credit for all those steals and bunts, and penalizes sluggers for all their GIDPs. The fact that UVI combines both offense and baserunning is, in my opinion, a big point in its favor.

First-order hitting UVI 

There are three UVIs: first, second, and third-order.

First is simply what the raw data tells us, second is park-adjusted, and third is park and level-adjusted. Since I've briefly explained the concepts above, here is the first-order UVI formula, for all the world to know:

(Total Bases + Walks + HBPs + SB - CS + .25(Bunts + Sac Flies) - GIDP - .1K)/PA

I figured that situational hitting does matter some. If a manager wants a player to bunt, and he does so succesfully, that at least means that a runner advanced on the out. The same goes for sac flies.

I thought since no one can advance on a strikeout, the penalty of .1 bases/K was reasonable. You can agree or disagree on that, but the formula is obviously subject to change if that's wrong. Since a second out is guaranteed on a GIDP, that's -1 extra base. (If any of this doesn't make sense to you, just comment at the bottom and I'll explain).

Second-order hitting UVI 

Second-order UVI adjusts for the batter's home park.

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