Sports Marketwatch: NBA Edition

Sports Marketwatch
NBA Edition
4/11/2008 4:15 PM EST
By The Team at SportsInsights.com

Welcome to this week's edition of the Sports Marketwatch – NBA Edition, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NBA point-spread marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch!  The NBA Edition of the Sports Marketwatch will be published weekly, on Friday’s, by 5PM, Eastern Time. 

The staff at SportsInsights.com speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding.  We’ll take a look at what’s in store for today’s NBA games.

Sports Marketplace – NBA Edition

The Knicks and 76ers both beat the spread last Friday, for a good 2-0 MarketWatch week.  Year-to-date performance is still nothing to write home about, but at least we’re closer to respectability.   With the NBA Playoffs coming up, the Sports MarketWatch is looking forward to additional value in the NBA marketplace.  Historically, games of national attention and importance have more of a public following – and add to the edge for sharp sports investors.

2007-08 NBA Games to Watch: 15-19-1 = 44.1%
*Source: SportsInsights.com

Sports MarketWatch 4/11/08 – Games to Watch

With the regular season winding down, some of the lines for games “seem weird” to some handicappers – as teams scramble for playoff positioning, draft picks, and various other motivational issues.  The interest in the NBA sports betting marketplace is slightly lower until the playoffs begin, so we will have a reduced number of plays today. 

Houston Rockets +3 over Phoenix Suns

The line opened at Houston -1, but questions about Tracy McGrady (he’s expected to play for Houston) as well as Houston forward Shane Battier have the public taking Phoenix at a rate of almost 80%.  At the time of writing, this game had the highest number of bets in the NBA.  Our oddsmaker contacts confirm that this match-up is the big one for the night – and they alerted us to circle this game.

The public’s pounding of Phoenix has moved the line a huge four points.  We’ll take Houston as a truly “live dog.”  The Rockets have a 29-10 home record (!!) and have a lot of potential for sports investment value.  We have an elite NBA playoff team receiving 3 points at home – with both playoff implications and pride – on the line.  “Betting against the public” looks like a quantifiable value in this game (along with potential overvalued injury concerns).   

Houston Rockets +3

Miami Heat +5 over Memphis Grizzlies

This is a battle between two of the league’s worst teams.  Miami, by far, has the worst record in the league.  This kind of info (such as Miami’s .179 winning percentage!) catches people’s attention.  As a result, in this battle of the basement dwellers, the public is jumping on Memphis.

Currently, Memphis is gathering about 75% of the bets, and the line has moved from Miami +4 to +5.  The line looks like it might move to +5.5, but we’ll take the +5 that is generally available at the time of publication. 

Note that Miami’s home record is 8-31, while Memphis has a visiting record of 7-31.  This game could be a toss-up.  We’ll “bet against the public” and take Miami plus the points.  Miami, like any team of professional athletes – has pride – and will “perform” in front of their home crowd.

Miami Heat +5.5

Games to Watch: 15-19-1 = 44.1%

Houston Rockets +3
Miami Heat +5.5

It should be another exciting weekend in the sports marketplace.  Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.  

We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – NBA Edition.

Enjoy the games!
The Team at SportsInsights.com