By the Numbers: Who Will Win the NCAA Tournament?

Numbers never lie.  I guess we’ll see: 

Let’s start simple.  Who has won the most titles?  Well, that one should be easy.  Most average college basketball fans will know that UCLA has the most titles with 11. 

However, who is next on that illustrious list?  That would be Kentucky with seven, then Indiana with five.  Those two teams blew their chances with an inconsistent season for the former and a “misremembering” coach for the latter.  (Sorry, Coach Sampson – you were loved at Oklahoma, but it’s time to own up and stop “not recollecting” certain things…). 

North Carolina comes into the picture at number four.  They have cut down the nets four times.  Kansas has been crowned champion twice, and Memphis has never ended a tournament run with a victory.  However, they did get close in 1973, when they lost to UCLA by a mere 21 points in the Championship game. 

Of the four remaining teams, UCLA has the most tournament wins: 

• UCLA, 94 wins
• North Carolina, 92
• Kansas, 76
• Memphis, 25 

Therefore, UCLA will be the champion.  Hmm…picking UCLA to win based on those facts does seem like a sort of weak argument. Let’s go deeper. 

There are often factors pulled out from box scores that tell the story of a title game or a Final Four game.  Based on some trend analysis, the following four factors have repeatedly come up as key elements for the winning team: Scoring, rebounding, free throw percentage and turnovers.  These are 2007-08 regular season statistics: 

Of the four remaining teams, North Carolina has the best scoring average: 

• UNC, 88.7 ppg
• KU, 81.5 (-8.8%)
• Memphis, 79.7 (-9.3%)
• UCLA, 74.1 (-19.7%) 

Rebounding should have something to do with determining a winner don’t you think?  Again, North Carolina has quite an edge: 

• UNC, 44.2 rpg
• Memphis, 40.8 (-8.3%)
• KU, 38.9 (-13.6%)
• UCLA, 36.7 (-20.4) 

The ever important free throw percentage has decided many titles over the years.  Once again, North Carolina leads the way: 

• UNC, 75.4 FT%
• UCLA, 73.1 (-3.1%)
• KU, 69.6 (-8.3%)
• Memphis, 60.7 (-24.2%) 

Turnovers in a championship game haven’t meant much in recent years.  Three of the last four champs have actually lost the turnover battle in the title game.  Maybe this year will be different?  That’s yet to be seen.  However, common sense would tell us that turnovers do make a difference.  In that case, Memphis has the honor here:  

• Memphis, 12.2 turnovers per game
• UCLA, 12.4 (-1.6%)
• KU, 12.9 (-5.4%)
• UNC, 14.7 (-17.0%) 

To round out this analysis, it would be a good idea to look at not only the regular season statistics, but also some more recent action.  How about the tournament itself?  Let’s go deeper: 

Scoring: 

• UNC, 93.0 ppg
• Memphis, 85.2 (-9.2%)
• KU, 72.8 (-27.7%)
• UCLA, 71.2 (-30.6%) 

Rebounds: 

• Memphis, 44.8 rpg
• UCLA, 44.5 (-0.7%)
• UNC, 44.2 (-1.4%)
• KU, 40.0 (-12.0%) 

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