Adam Lind: Fact or Fiction

The Toronto Blue Jays Adam Lind has gotten off to an amazing start.  Through Sunday he was hitting .400 with 3 HR, 12 RBI and 5 R.  While people saw him as a potential breakout performer this season, I don’t think anyone saw this type of a start coming.

In 1,581 minor league at bats he hit just 55 home runs (a HR every 28.7 AB).  In the major leagues he had hit 22 HR in 676 at bats (a HR every 30.7 AB) prior to this season.  His career high was 26 in 2006, between Double-A, Triple-A and the Majors.  What in those numbers make anyone believe he can suddenly mature into a 30-plus home run hitter?

I know, prior to the 2007 Baseball America had him ranked as the teams top prospect saying, “Lind’s classic lefthanded swing projects more power because his bat stays in the zone longer than that of most hitters. His hands are quiet and he’s adept at staying inside the ball. Lind has exceptional balance at the plate and hits for power from line to line.”

At 25-years old (he turns 26 in July) I’m just not buying it, even with his scorching start to the season.  Yes, people do develop power later on, it has happened.  He’s just been very consistent over his career.  While he could end up in the 25 HR range, that’s still the maximum I’m expecting.

Obviously, the average is going to take a hit and it would be surprising to see him finish the season as a .300 hitter.  He’s only walked once this season, though his eye is better than that (obviously).

Still, he’s walked just 5.2 percent in the Major Leagues (prior to this season), so there is plenty of concern there.  If he’s going to chase pitches out of the zone, his average is eventually going to struggle.

So, the power is going to decline and the average is certainly higher then it’s going to be.  Toss in the fact that he has little speed and there is plenty to be concerned about with Lind.

Maybe he has finally evolved as a hitter and is going to post a monster season.  At the same time, maybe not.  I’m not saying not to grab him, because in deeper formats I would take him in a heartbeat and stash him away just in case.  The fact of the matter is that he is in no way a guarantee to fully breakout.

What does everyone else think?  Is this Lind’s year or am I being overly skeptical?

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