The Columnist at the All-Star Break

One of the great aspects of the Bleacher Report is the community of readers who actively participate in the comments section of every article published on the website. 

The feedback produced on my columns over the past few months has been enlightening, and I have really taken some of the criticism to heart.

I wanted to take the opportunity to thank the readers of the Bleacher Report for making each column a conversation. I also wanted to answer some of the criticisms my columns have received over the course of the baseball season.

A few of you doubt the powers of sabermetrics. I want to show everyone how mistaken that sentiment is.

In my season preview column on March 30th, I told readers about the great arm on Twins right fielder Michael Cuddyer; he now leads the American League in outfield assists with 15. 

In the same column, I warned about the Twins being susceptible to injury. Rondell White, Jeff Cirillo, Joe Mauer, Denys Reyes, and Jesse Crain have all missed significant time. 

White and Crain, in fact, are pretty much completely out of the picture, while Cirillo is struggling to play every day. The Twins are still treading water when it comes to Mauer and second basemen Luis Castillo.

In my April 9th column, I noted several storylines for Twins fans to watch. Among them was the performance of Twins third base coach Scott Ullger. 

In my Bleacher Report blog, I did my best to keep track of times I thought Ullger had made errors in judgment. In reality, I didn't need to keep track of the small stuff. 

Ullger was the man responsible for taking Justin Morneau out of the lineup by erroneously waving him home on the play that resulted in a bruised lung for Morneau in a collision with Marlins catcher Miguel Olivo. 

By my count, Ullger has cost the Twins six or seven runs over the year...on top of putting Morneau on the shelf for a week. Three times he got players gunned at the plate by large margins, and four times he held players from scoring on what should have been gimmes.  

 
Nick Punto was the subject of my April 23rd column. I suggested Minnesotans had fallen in love with the scrappy third basemen because he was a loser. But Punto has been far worse than a loser: He's on pace to produce the worst offensive season of any Twins regular since 1967. 

  

On April 30th, I told Bleacher Report readers that Pat Neshek was going to be the next big thing. In the months since, Neshek has posted a 1.48 ERA, allowed 21 base runners in 30 innings, and held opponents to .121 batting average in thirty total games. 

Neshek was put on the ballot for the last spot on the AL All-Star Team, but finished third after failing to win the popular vote in Asia. 

I know the jury is still out on my prediction that Neshek will be the best sidearm reliever since Dan Quisenberry, but Bleacher Report readers were given a head's-up about a great player the mainstream media had failed to cover.  

I made a number of predictions in my May 6th column. I said to expect big things from Daisuke Matsuzaka...and he delivered. In his starts since the column was published, Matsuzaka has gone 7-4 with a 3.09 ERA, and has held batters to a .243 batting average. His 3.09 ERA is much lower than the American League average of 4.48. 

Dice-K has been an above-average big league pitcher, just as his Japanese league statistics predicted.
 
I also said that I saw the Yankees finishing the season above .500. It's too early to say if I'm right, but the Yanks now stand at 42 wins and 43 losses. When I wrote the column, they were were 12-15. 

I still see the Yankees coming on strong in the second half and finishing well above .500. 

The Yankees will probably get help from the subject of my May 14th column, Roger Clemens. The Rocket has turned in four quality starts among his six outings so far, and his 1.11 WHIP and 3.63 ERA have put the Yankees in a position to win.

That's all a team can ask from a 44-year-old future Hall-of-Famer. 

What's most interesting is how close Clemens' actual ERA is to his xFIP. Don t worry if you don't immediately recognize that stat xFIP stands for expected Fielding Independent Pitching stat. 

The xFIP only takes into consideration the elements of pitching directly within a pitcher s control: walks, strikeouts, home runs, and innings pitched. The xFIP stat is an accurate predictor of what a pitcher s ERA should be and Clemens' xFIP is 3.73. 

The Rocket's xFIP puts him among the top ten starters in the American League. What I can't say for certain is whether Clemens is going to stay healthy enough to make my predictions about him come true.

He's already monitoring a sore groin, and I can only imagine what else happens to your body when you go over the hill. 

In the end, my point here is not that I've made a bunch of good predictions: I'm only hoping that more people see the value of statistics. I'm not out to give suggestions as to what bets you should make with your bookie, but if you do want to bet some money...

Detroit in the AL Central, Boston in the AL East, and, as a high risk/high reward pick, the Yankees for the wild card.   

Any gambling suggestions are for entertainment purposes only. Following the financial advice of a writer is not a good idea and should never be done.  Ever.

Marty Andrade is a frequent contributor to the Bleacher Report and the host of a live weekly podcast available at BlogTalkRadio.com/Andrade.