Andrew Luck Is Already League-Average and Other AFC South Must-Reads

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Andrew Luck Is Already League-Average and Other AFC South Must-Reads
Brian Spurlock-US PRESSWIRE
It took Luck three games to make it to NFL average.

I love Tuesdays.

On Tuesday, the Football Outsiders release their weekly numbers. They are always chock full of goodness. This week is extra special because it contains the year's first look at opponent adjustments.

It's interesting to see Andrew Luck's early numbers come out.

He ranks 18th in passing DVOA, at -0.1%. That means that passing-wise, he's already a league-average quarterback. He's also second in rushing efficiency.

Overall, he's 16th in the NFL in total DYAR from quarterbacks, having played one fewer games than the rest of the league.

In short, three games into his career, and he's already in the top-half of quarterbacks. I think the Colts will take that happily.

League average doesn't sound great, but from a rookie playing with very little offensive talent behind a patch-work line, it's remarkable. It also confirms my suspicions that he'd be league-average quickly, and I won't be surprised if he cracks the top-10 by the end of the year.

Here are some interesting tidbits from the new numbers. They are available on the menus at Football Outsiders.

  • Houston tops the league. It is third on offense and second on defense. The Colts rise to 20th overall, and are 13th on offense. The Titans and Jaguars are in the bottom four.
  • Matt Schaub is second in the NFL in passing DVOA. Blaine Gabbert is 32nd.
  • Reggie Wayne is off to a big start, and after opponent adjustments are factored in, he's back over zero in effectiveness. Donnie Avery is still well below sea-level.
  • Who are the two worst regular wideouts in the NFL? Justin Blackmon and Kendall Wright bring up the rear.
  • Jacksonville has the fourth-best run-blocking line. Indianapolis and Tennessee have the second- and third-worst respectively. In terms of pass-blocking, the Jaguars rank 23rd, higher than most would guess. Houston is second-best in the league with Indianapolis at sixth. 

 

General Interest

Mike Tanier of Sports on Earth has his quarter-season review.

Bleacher Report lead writers (myself included) post Week 5 picks. I'm in first so far.

Vince Verhei of the Football Outsiders posts Quick Reads. It's basically a love letter to J.J. Watt.

Aaron Schatz in Deadspin goes crazy on Ron Rivera for his insane fourth-down call.

Gordon McGuinness of Pro Football Focus looks at the Texans and Titans.

 

Tennessee Titans

Jim Wyatt of The Tennessean measures an ugly first quarter to the season.

Paul Kuharsky of ESPN.com says Chris Johnson ran well between the tackles against Houston.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars

Ben Stockwell of Pro Football Focus looks at the Bengals and Jaguars.

Ryan O'Halloran of the Florida Times-Union takes account of the team.

O'Halloran posts snap count data.

 

Houston Texans

Pat Kirwan of CBSSports.com asks a ridiculous question. I link this only because of how bad it is.

John McClain of The Houston Chronicle says the Jets could cause the Texans' defense to rise.

Jerome Solomon of The Houston Chronicle says Kareem Jackson is better.

 

Indianapolis Colts

Kyle Rodriguez of Colts Authority says the Colts need turnovers.

Phil Wilson of The Indianapolis Star previews the Packers' game.

Mike Chappell of The Indianapolis Star says Chuck Pagano is getting support from other coaches.

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