Belmont Stakes 2012: Handicapping the Win, Show and Place Scenarios

I’ll Have Another is out of the Belmont Stakes and all the previous predictions on how the horses will finish now have to be thrown out of the window.

A new group of thoroughbreds now have dramatically improved chances to win in New York on June 9.

Here are four scenarios describing which horses will win, place and show and how likely each one is to happen. 

Dullahan to Win, Paynter to Place and Union Rags to Show

Odds: 6-1

Dullahan is the new favorite at the Belmont and after an impressive race at the Kentucky Derby, this title is deserved. The horse did not race at the Preakness Stakes and has been completely focused on the Belmont, and he will beat out the field on June 9. 

Union Rags has the second-best odds to win, and in all likelihood, he will be right on Dullahan’s tail for most of the one and one-half mile race. However, Dullahan will pull away at the end, and Union Rags will fade.

This will open the door for Paynter, who will be hanging back and waiting to make his move. Just like I’ll Have Another did, he will make a late charge, and pass Union Rags, but come up just short of winning. 

Paynter to Win, Dullahan to Place, Union Rags to Show

Odds: 10-1

This scenario is very similar to the first one, with the action down the stretch getting a little more exciting.

Again, Dullahan and Union Rags, the two favorites, will set the pace early. They will pull away from the pack, but Paynter will hang around and stay within striking distance. 

Once they round the final turn, then Paynter will show off his true speed. While Dullahan and Union Rags are struggling to pull past one another, Paynter will continue to close the gap. 

In the final few yards, Paynter will have more juice left in his legs as the other two thoroughbreds will have tired out early. The late surge will treat spectators to another dramatic finish, only no Triple Crown will be involved. 

Dullahan to Win, Paynter to Place, Street Life to Show

Odds: 15-1

Dullahan has the potential to lead this race from start to finish. If he gets a good break out of the gate, there may not be a horse that will challenge him at any point. 

Paynter is trained by the legendary Bob Baffert and will be jockeyed by veteran Mike Smith, so this horse will come through in the top-three. 

If there is one horse that has the potential to put on an underwhelming performance, it’s Union Rags. After plenty of hype heading into the Kentucky Derby, he disappointingly finished seventh. The Belmont may not be much different. 

Street Life is the horse that no one is talking about, but at 12-1 odds, has a decent shot at coming through at the front of the pack. However, he received a terrible draw in post No. 1. If this horse can get a good start and stay off the inside of the track, he will run an impressive race.

Dullahan to Win, Union Rags to Place, Paynter to Show

Odds: 30-1

Is it possible that the odds makers are correct and the horses will finish as predicted? I do not think so.

Dullahan certainly has a fantastic shot at victory and will likely be the winner on June 9.

Union Rags’ performance is extremely hard to predict as his talent and his performance at the Kentucky Derby do not match up. This horse is an all-or-nothing bet.

Paynter has an excellent team surrounding him, but does not have the talent or the past results in big races that the other two favorites have. Still, he will be right there with the leaders at the end of the race.

The odds may be in these horses favor, but horse racing is never this predictable, so this scenario is a longshot.